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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Who is Jim Bridenstine, and how did he win? (33 comments)

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  •  Marist Polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone

    NH O45-R45
    MI O47-R43
    NC O46-R44

    MI surprises me on how close it is, guess money is going to be spent there.  Fact still up in NC though is nice to see.

    Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

    by marcvstraianvs on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 05:06:00 AM PDT

    •  Crosstabs (4+ / 0-)

      Obama job approval in NH is 47-45 and 50-44 favorable. Romney favorables are 45-45.

      Obama job approval in MI is 48-42 and 51-41 favorable. Romney favorables 37-43.

      Obama job approval in NC is 47-47 and 48-45 favorable. Romney favorables are 40-42.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 05:21:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm dying to know what OFA MI private polling... (0+ / 0-)


        This is now way too many public polls from way too many sources saying it's margin-of-error to dismiss out of hand, as I've been doing all along.

        And yet, OFA and allies are acting like we're up double-digits.  Is this a reincarnation of NV-Sen 2010, where public polls are missing something?

        I'm still confident Michigan isn't a real battleground.  I say that mainly because OFA continues to ignore it in their spending.  And partly because even this Marist poll makes clear that Obama's job approval, his favorables, and Mitt's favorables ensure Obama will win the state, probably more comfortably than the ballot test suggests.

        The whole point of invading enemy turf to put a state into play is to force the opponent to invest there.  If OFA isn't investing in Michigan and we win there anyway, then close polling doesn't matter.

        That distinguishes from North Carolina, where Mitt and allies are spending heavily to secure it, and gaining no ground.

        I dismiss all the recent polls that said we somehow went from up 1-3 points to trailing 1-3 points in NC.  That's all meaningless margin-of-error movement.  Now we have confirmation it's a tossup, with job approval, not just the ballot teset, confirming it.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 08:04:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Didn't think they were doing NC (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, tietack

      that result surprises me a little but not much, it is effectively a tie there according to numerous polls.

      MI is a little narrower than I thought but not much, I was expecting Obama to be about 6 points up there.

      NH is the biggest question mark. Ras had Obama +5, and we know about his bias. ARG had Obama +8 and that is one state where they can generally be relied on (their head-to-head state polls were actually good in 2008.). So NH is probably the one that is the most off. Still, considering all the recent polls, Obama does have a modest lead there.

      •  They kept changing the list, screwing it up! (0+ / 0-)

        At different times they would say OH/MI/NH or OH/NC/NH, and I never saw them say it would be OH/NC/NH.  Their conflicting write-ups on Twitter and on the First Read blog were too many for me to think they just had's almost like they changed their minds about which 3 to poll.  But Ohio was promised virtually every time, and now no Ohio.  No biggie because they already did Ohio before, and maybe that's how they decided the selections in the end.  But I woke up not knowing exactly which 3 states it would be!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 07:59:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  These Don't Strike Me As Credible..... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, sacman701

      Obama is extremely unlikely to win North Carolina and lose New Hampshire this fall.  

      •  unlikely but I wouldn't totally rule it out (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, RoIn, lina

        NH is a bit "maverick" while NC is trending Dem in recent elections largely due to demographic shifts. If Obama wins nationally by something like 2% it's just about conceivable that he could narrowly win NC and narrowly lose NH.

      •  It's perfectly credible (0+ / 0-)

        Things change.  North Carolina and New Hampshire are both purple states now.  Obama has a higher floor in NC than NH because of people of color in NC compared to a much larger group of white swing voters in NH.

        You're having a hard time grasping this because it's so new.  And of course even last time NH still was 4 points more Democratic than NC.  But swing voters aren't unified anymore, they're divided, so we easily could lose more ground in NH than NC where so much more of our vote comes from a bigger Democratic base with a foundation of people of color.

        I agree it's still very unlikely we both win NC and lose NH.  But it's not inconceivable.  OFA is working a different approach in the two states, with TV ads moving swing voters our way being a much bigger deal in NH and "adjusting the electorate" being a relatively bigger part of the campaign in NC.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 08:12:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  MI Marist (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, DCCyclone

      Given that there has been anti-Obama ads being aired in MI with no pro-Obama/anti-Romney to counter them, a 4% lead is decent.  I think a mid-high single digit lead (4-9%) is about what I expect.  I don't believe the tied/Romney leading polls.  

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