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View Diary: Marist poll of three swing states has good news in North Carolina, mixed bag elsewhere (27 comments)

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  •  Another large consideration (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, sebastianguy99, MichaelNY, askew

    Marist's sample is waaaaaaay older than the 2008 turnout.

    2008, voters over 45 = 53%
    Marist, voters over 45 = 64%

    Under 30s are 5% less, and 30-44 is 7% less.

    The one area in the Michigan primary where Romney did fantastic is over 65 voters.  He lost every other group to Ricky, while winning overwhelmingly among people who could've voted for his father.

    So whatever the margin is in reality, this sample is certainly not friendly to Obama.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 02:35:56 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  What is it with pollsters (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, tommypaine, blueonyx

      and constantly overstating elderly voters, as well as independents?

      •  I get why no cellphone pollsters have this problem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but no reason a company that polls cellphones should be so very much tilted toward older voters.  A few points more elderly, sure, no problem, but this much is just too much.

        (Since Michigan elderly voters like Romney better than everywhere else, it presents a more extreme problem here.)

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 06:01:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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