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View Diary: 538: Ten Most Likely Toss Up States all favor Obama (45 comments)

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  •  I will agree somewhat (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nowhere Man, Supavash, Larsstephens

    the war chest will make a difference. However, in a national race with a known candidate where the incumbent is already so well known, the impact will be less than the local race you referred to. The difference between the two races seems rather large to me. So, I am not quite convinced that one can gather too much from that. President Obama will have enough money that the terrible CU decision won't decide the election.
    The voter suppression issues are important. However, POTUS and his team are well aware of them, so are being struck down by the DOJ, and POTUS was a community organizer. Trust me, they are on top of this. Polls are looking at registered voters. Florida in 2008 did have some problems, but I am guessing you are referring to Florida 2000 and Ohio in 2004 which had some controversial outcomes.  Still, the voter suppression is something we need to take very seriously.

    Nate does not believe that President Obama underperformed based upon race issues in 2008. I have yet to heard anybody credible provide any convincing, decisive evidence that such is the case. TN and WV and places in the South have a lot of racists, but based upon what I have read and heard about this, President Obama will not underperform polling based upon race in 2012, just as he did not in 2008.

    I would say that President Obama is much more likely, even with the above concerns, than Mitt Romney to win the uS Presidential election in 2012. To say he will be competitive, to damn him with faint praise, is to undersell the actual data and to inject unnecessary pessimism, probably because one believes that optimism breeds laziness and contempt. I find that optimism makes me work that much harder for my President's reelection. I hope that makes you feel better.

    •  hopefully, you're right... (0+ / 0-)

      as to the effect of money on the race...you're right...spread over the entire country, perhaps it won't have a dramatic effect; however, if you consider that they can target massive amounts of money to just a few select swing states rather than having to spread it out over the entire country, then...Citizens United has, in my opinion, the potential to allow Romney's camp to simply purchase themselves a few swing states' electoral votes. In a close election that could be enough.

      As far as the racist factor, here's one research who thinks it represented somewhere between 3-5 percent in 2008:
      Racism likely to cost President Obama 3-5%

      according to at least one researcher who has looked into this matter:

      http://shine.yahoo.com/...

      My overall concern is not with the president and his team's being on top of all of this. They are much smarter than me and, based on their past performance, probably on top of al of the above. My main concern is with posters who look at current polls without factoring things like the above into the equation. All things being equal, if the polls show a close race in October (i.e. five percent or less), all of the above could easily make President Obama the underdog, in my opinion (and acting as if he were the underdog is probably the best approach for us all).

      •  I agree but think it makes more difference in (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        downballot races. I'm afraid the massive amounts of money and the voter supression will kick in harder in Congressional and Senatorial races than in the Presidents race. Each of your points will resound more in places where races are close and money makes big difference. I think the same is true about voter supression.

        I'm very afraid Obama will be faced with two hostile houses of congress and be in for a rough ride the next two years. Lets hope we can at least hold the Senate.

        America could have chosen to be the worlds doctor, or grocer. We choose instead to be her policeman. pity

        by cacamp on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 09:32:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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