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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Holy shnikeys! Elizabeth Warren raises $8.7 million! (130 comments)

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  •  I take your point about PPP but I don't think (0+ / 0-)

    it can be dismissed entirely. To take another couple of data points, the Obama-McCain breakdown of the sample was 48-44, while there were almost twice as many over-65s and half as many 18-29 voters as in 2008.

    It is pretty much impossible that the actual turnout in Virginia will be anywhere near as favorable to Romney on all these demographics as it is in PPP's sample, so his main hope is that PPP are somehow way off in accuracy. His numbers among moderates for example are particularly horrible - 27-60 on favorability and only 28% of moderates say they'll vote for him. He has to hope that's just plain wrong, an outlier, because he's toast if the reality is anything remotely close to that.

    •  Part of the problem (0+ / 0-)

      in looking at the cross tabs is that they can lead to grossly simplified conclusions. It's easy enough to play around with the numbers--I do it all the time--but it's more likely that we're going to adjust the parts that seem off for us and leave the ones that seem right alone. You're making them appear better than they might be.

      Take PPP's polling of Pennsylvania, for instance. Back when he looked weak in the state, in 2011 at various points, Obama was getting somewhere between 75-80 percent of blacks, which is far less than anybody expects him to get on election day. It would be perfectly reasonable, I think, to expect him to get no less than 90 percent, all things considered, if not higher than that, but adjusting just that number means a sharp and possibly unrealistic improvement in his overall numbers. You could adjust the other numbers downward, but then, why do that?

      None of this is to say that we can't play around. As I said above, I do it all the time. Just don't get too wrapped up in the details if the top lines seem believable.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:53:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes it can be dismissed entirely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      With all due respect, your comment just cited more crosstabs I dismiss.

      Again, PPP does this all the time, having the turnout model change by party or race or other things, and yet the toplines remain largely consistent.  This happened through the 2010 cycle, and it's happening again now.

      The last Virginia poll PPP put out had almost identical toplines, with Obama up 51-43, the same 8-point margin as the 50-42 today, but that was with more Democrats, and I think more black voters.

      So you're going to say we should trust that the GOP has improved likely turnout and yet hasn't gained any ground overall?  That's not realistic.

      You can't trust the crosstabs or even the turnout models very much in these public polls.  Just treat them as being in roughly the right ballpark, but with no precision at all.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 09:06:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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