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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Voters say Romney should disclose 12 years of tax returns (94 comments)

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  •  Two-point lead. Wow. (3+ / 0-)
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    kayfromsouth, sawgrass727, yellowdog

    We'd better hope this Bain thing is a true drip-by-drip effect because right now, very few Americans seem to give a shit.  I love how every week that Obama is squeaking past this vulturous POS Romney, the lead -- the top line number -- gets buried under 'tax returns' and all the rest.

    And please don't give me 'national polls mean nothing.'  Win the national, win the election.  Except for once in the 1800s, as 2000 doesn't count.

    •  The irresistible force versus the immovable object (8+ / 0-)
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      JML9999, jj32, jnhobbs, Bharat, LordMike, itskevin, askew, IM

      The economy is bad and Romney is a bad candidate. Two competing forces resulting in this status quo.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 10:07:35 AM PDT

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    •  I think it will take time to see if it (0+ / 0-)

      becomes a major issue or not. Someone pointed out how a lot of people didnt even know the SCOTUS ruling on healthcare right after it came out.

      I do think Bain is about trying to define Romney, and take away his main argument for being president(private sector experience).

    •  Here's where you're going to see more effect: (1+ / 0-)
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      Loss of enthusiasm.

      This will be a close election, short of a gigaton bombshell, just because people are that polarized politically and the conservatives have that much money. But they're getting blown to smithereens on enthusiasm and prestige for the Republican cause. Baining is going to have a long-term and appreciable effect on the shape of political discourse in this country.

      •  Tea Baggers do not EVER stay home. We need to (5+ / 0-)

        drill this into our heads.  They might get mad, they might write in Sarah or Ron Paul....they might even bring out either one of the fore mentioned out from behind the curtain in Tampa and throw Romney to the curb because he isn't even nominated in full yet.... but they will never stay home.

         They will crawl over broken glass, in the rain or snow, with every back woods cousin they have in tow and vote on Election Day.  Make no mistake about that.

        Indies are either on our side or on their side right now.  You will not find many "ho hum...I really just don't know who to pick" people out there in this economic climate during all of these momentous and paramount issues that are so polarizing. The undecided is probably close to <5% at this point or lower.  The only thing that will make indies stay at home is if they literally hate both of them....and that doesn't help us.  

        We cannot count of an enthusiasm gap with them to win this election.  We must GOTV with our side, because unfortunately it is our side that always seems to have that problem.

      •  What effect (0+ / 0-)

        will continued poor job numbers do? Will they out weigh the Bain Attacks?

    •  It's still summertime (1+ / 0-)
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      and a lot of people aren't in election mode yet -- if the Obama campaign's rolling out this stuff now, who knows what they're holding back for, say, after Labor Day when people are back and watching the new network shows, especially in swing states?

      "If we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now" -- Rev. William Barber, NAACP

      by Cali Scribe on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 10:28:41 AM PDT

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    •  Public opinion doesn't neccesarily swing fast. (0+ / 0-)

      Let's reserve our judgement about the effect of Bain until after this has been going on a couple of weeks.  Just because polls are now conducted daily doesn't mean each one is the be-all end all.

    •  Movement in swing states (1+ / 0-)
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      the most dramatic example was the Purple Strategies poll of Ohio that showed Obama going from a 3-point deficit to a 3-point lead. But other polling in Ohio and other states has also shown Obama running strong in the critical battlegrounds--Quinnipiac and Priorities USA, who use a reliable pollster to survey the states where they are running ads.

    •  Crosstabs: Romney gets 10% of the black vote. (0+ / 0-)

      Fat chance!  Also, Dem/Repub sampling is 38/37.  Fat chance!  

      •  Both probably within MOE (1+ / 0-)
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        The sample of black voters is probably pretty small, so it will have a large MOE. And I'd expect Romney to at least get the 5% that McCain got, maybe plus a percent or two for the bad economy.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 11:13:54 AM PDT

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    •  The national polling means nothing. (1+ / 0-)
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      Just because you have a 45% of everyone making an idiotic choice doesn't mean it's real close. If you dig down into the electoral votes, Obama has a significant lead.

      Over at TalkingPointsMemo, the scoreboard has Obama winning WITHOUT EVEN NEEDING TO WIN ANY OF THE SWING STATES. So, Romney would have to run the table on all four of the swing states, and then peel away 1 or more of the blue states. Over at FiveThirtyEight, it pretty much says the same thing.

      I'm not saying the Obama campaign should let their foot off the gas, because the stakes are too high. But the horse race is not nearly as close as the national polls would lead you to believe.

    •  also (0+ / 0-)

      the President's job approval and Favorability are upside down. I havent seen a recent poll where the Job approval is over 47. Dr Dean says he needs a new slogan. What are we suppose to be rallying around?

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