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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Voters say Romney should disclose 12 years of tax returns (94 comments)

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  •  Ok, so unless PPP is doing something wrong (2+ / 0-)
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    DefendOurConstitution, yellowdog

    I think we have to come to grips with the likely reality that the partisan gap has significantly narrowed for this November.

    I'm liking, but not loving, where we are with the racial crosstabs. Obama used to routinely hit 60% with hispanic voters. Not so much recently.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 10:24:46 AM PDT

    •  Hispanic voters just in this poll? (0+ / 0-)

      Consistently the one crosstab that swings about most in these weekly polls.

      55-35 here, 61-33 last time. Before that 58-34, 61-32, 53-32, 49-45,  58-40 and so on.

      And the gap is far larger in most other national polls.

      Meanwhile, you always say to look at whites as being the most reliable crosstab.

      41 here, 41 last time. Before that 40, 42, 43, 44, 40, 42, 41.

      I agree the partisan gap has likely narrowed however.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 10:45:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What I mean is (0+ / 0-)

        that previously Obama going under 60% in hispanic support was very rare, and now it happens regularly. Regarding white voters, you are quite right; that's why I said that I like where we are with the racial crosstabs.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 12:38:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I would note most other national polls (0+ / 0-)

          Have Obama in the 30s with whites just as they find a bigger lead with Hispanics than PPP. Just goes to show we should never rely on one poll for the state of the race.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 01:05:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Hispanic crosstabs are not valid (0+ / 0-)

          The only valid Hispanic polling has been Hispanic-only polls such as by Latino Decisions, and Hispanic oversamples such as by NBC/WSJ.

          All the reliable Hispanic polling shows Obama with record support, in the high 60s or occasionally even breaking 70, while Mitt languishes in the high 20s or low 30s.

          This is why I feel pretty good about Colorado and Nevada.  I don't think Mitt can overcome this in those states.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 08:54:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's not just partisan gap (0+ / 0-)

      PPP thinks your people will turnout less, and old people more than previously.

      2008 partisan numbers: D+7
      This poll: D+1

      Uh, yeah, Obama will have a 2 point lead if the partisan turnout is that wildly different from.  If however turnout is like 2008, add 6+2 = 8 point victory.  Obama won by 7.3%.

      Basically, hardly anything has changed in four years.  All that matters is turnout.  If turnout is in the same broad ballpark as 2008, Obama wins easily.  If turnout is drastically different this year, Obama should win a close popular vote race but still win the Electoral college with at least a couple states to spare.

      One of these days I'd like to see PPP put out a poll with a sample about the same as 2008 in terms of Obama/McCain, party ID, and age, and then let us see.  To spoil the suspense, it would show Obama +9 or so.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 12:21:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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