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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Ohio police union endorses first Democrat for Senate since 1988 (156 comments)

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  •  March is irrelevant now (4+ / 0-)

    in comparing polls to previous polls from the same pollster, we really have to focus on polls taken from May or maybe late April, when Romney secured the nomination and the GE campaign in fact began. The repub base was still not consolidated in March.

    •  It's not irrelevant in these polls (1+ / 0-)
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      Romney had consolidated the GOP base in Q-poll's Virginia numbers already in March.

      This comparison isn't irrelevant at all, rather it shows the importance of the turnout model.

      Obama and Mitt have run roughly even with indies in Virginia this whole time, and both consolidated their bases long ago.  That's true in Q-poll's work and in other work.  The differences have been in racial and partisan composition.  And that's where I feel pretty good about the state in November.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:58:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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