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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney moves into tie with Obama (233 comments)

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  •  He's not winning all of these (8+ / 0-)

    My take:

    FL? Screw it. With all the shenanigans, I'm giving it (in my mind) to the Republicans and moving on.  

    CO? Not for a minute do I buy CO not going for Obama.

    VA? This could turn against us, but we have a Senate race to win here too.

    NH?  These people know Romney well from Mass. and primary campaigns - there's not many undecided voters to sway.  Can't see Romney winning this one.

    IA?  Ditto.

    OH? Bad economic numbers could push this one the wrong direction.

    Romney has to win ALL of these.  Also, Obama has some take-aways:

    Arizona:  If Hispanics turn out and go 75-25, Obama could win here.

    Missouri:  Though I'm of the belief MO is entering WV territory, polls show a close race.

    North Carolina:  Still winnable with good AA turnout.

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:42:50 AM PDT

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    •  Missouri... (5+ / 0-)

      Missouri, my home state, was decided by less than 4,000 votes in 2008.  I'm convinced Missouri can flip blue in 2012.

    •  IA? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      I agree.

      there's not many undecided voters to sway.  Can't see Romney winning this one.
      Romney got less that 25% of the vote in the Iowa precinct caucuses in 2012 running against the GOP clown troupe. After the votes were counted, Santorum won. Santorum?!

      Obama has spent lots of time in Iowa, and has a good organization. In  the 2008 precinct caucuses, Obama got 37.6%, soundly defeating Hillary, who was expected to be the front runner. Iowa has been a swing state with very close elections, but in November 2008, Obama carried Iowa with 54% of the vote. More than 9% ahead of McCain. I will be closer this time, but Obama should win. Unknowns include a national economic disaster caused by Europe or, more likely, a midwest ag disaster caused by the weather.

    •  My take...swing states... (0+ / 0-)

      FL...With the conman Scott - give it to Romney..
      PA...with suppression I give it to Romney
      NC...to Romney
      -VA   - Obama
      -Wisconsin -Obama
      -NV - Obama
      -CO -Obama
      -OH - Obama...
      This gets him to 270 and a bonus....

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:38:35 PM PDT

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      •  Romney will not win PA (5+ / 0-)

        they can't suppress enough votes to give it to him, it is more likely for Obama than most if not all the states you are giving Obama.

      •  According to TPMs Poll Tracker, in Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

        Obama leads Romney by an average of 47.6 to 42.4; none other than Rasmussen gave Obama a four point lead.

        Vote suppression is bad, but I don't think it will overturn a five or six point lead.  Just a guess, but Romney would have to draw to probably within a point for that to realistically swing things, and even then I'm not sure it alone would flip the state.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:06:54 PM PDT

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        •  Really? With a 750K possible voters out? (0+ / 0-)

          Estimates of voters suppressed range from 750K to 1M. Not all these are Obama votes but I fancy 70% are. That counts for about 300K to 700K vote lose.
          I think this is enough to flip the state. To make up for this Obama needs to outsprint Romney by no less than 6 points on election day in PA...with that he could crawl across the finish line with 1 point.

          "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

          by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:18:29 PM PDT

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          •  only if and very big if at that.. (0+ / 0-)

             Even if the law disenfranchises that many you must realise that alot of those voters will end up getting ID before November. Indiana has a similar law but it only affected about a thousand voters statewide.

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