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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney moves into tie with Obama (233 comments)

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  •  summer time (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury, hyperstation, LordMike, McGahee220

    Young voters, single voters, so called latinos, African Americans are less likely to indicate to a pollster that they will definately vote than older and married and more settled folk.  Thus the sample in July of committed voters isn't the same that it is in October and what it will be after the get out the vote mobilization impacts the voters.  

    So National polls are interesting, but they are not based on a moving train of committed voters which will gather more and more commited voters as time moves on.

    •  I am not convinced of that point (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bryduck, Yosef 52, Williston Barrett

      Most of those groups were sure of their votes in 2008.  I know we're in different waters in 2012, but really, if these demographic groups - which are crucial to Democrats -- don't know they're voting Democratic at this point, then I am more afraid than i was before i read this diary.

      I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

      by Delilah on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:11:17 PM PDT

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      •  And in 2008, Obama's worst months... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Delilah, McGahee220

        ...were July and August.  They've always been his worst months every year since then.  There is a systemic "summer effect" that is consistent.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:42:47 PM PDT

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        •  I keep reminding myself (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          of that point as I devolve into hand wringing mode.  ;)

          BTW, LordMike, I always love your posts.

          I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

          by Delilah on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:55:22 PM PDT

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          •  Thank you, Delilah! I appreciate it! :-) (0+ / 0-)

            I've been dreading this summer, because I knew that Obama's number would tank as the summer went on, because that's what ALWAYS happens.  I'm glad that he's putting up a fight this summer, since this is not the time to fall behind.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 05:35:47 PM PDT

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        •  ...and in 2011 if I remember well.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          not that it gives room for complacency...but there appears to be a pattern here...
          ...all in all it would come down to the narrative about the economy in the next 3 months.....keeping 100k+ jobs would look not too bad...

          "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

          by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:12:01 PM PDT

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