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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney moves into tie with Obama (233 comments)

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  •  My take...swing states... (0+ / 0-)

    FL...With the conman Scott - give it to Romney..
    PA...with suppression I give it to Romney
    NC...to Romney
    -VA   - Obama
    -Wisconsin -Obama
    -NV - Obama
    -CO -Obama
    -OH - Obama...
    This gets him to 270 and a bonus....

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

    by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:38:35 PM PDT

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    •  Romney will not win PA (5+ / 0-)

      they can't suppress enough votes to give it to him, it is more likely for Obama than most if not all the states you are giving Obama.

    •  According to TPMs Poll Tracker, in Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

      Obama leads Romney by an average of 47.6 to 42.4; none other than Rasmussen gave Obama a four point lead.

      Vote suppression is bad, but I don't think it will overturn a five or six point lead.  Just a guess, but Romney would have to draw to probably within a point for that to realistically swing things, and even then I'm not sure it alone would flip the state.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:06:54 PM PDT

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      •  Really? With a 750K possible voters out? (0+ / 0-)

        Estimates of voters suppressed range from 750K to 1M. Not all these are Obama votes but I fancy 70% are. That counts for about 300K to 700K vote lose.
        I think this is enough to flip the state. To make up for this Obama needs to outsprint Romney by no less than 6 points on election day in PA...with that he could crawl across the finish line with 1 point.

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:18:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  only if and very big if at that.. (0+ / 0-)

           Even if the law disenfranchises that many you must realise that alot of those voters will end up getting ID before November. Indiana has a similar law but it only affected about a thousand voters statewide.

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