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View Diary: The pollsters: Who's good, who's not, and how bouncy they all are (49 comments)

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  •  Press releases vs polls (1+ / 0-)
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    You're probably right to be suspicious of the write-ups. But as far as manipulating the polls, let's suppose that they do tweak the methods every so often just to get more interesting headlines.  What we would see is that there would be more large jumps from one poll to the next than we would expect from random noise.  So far this year, Gallup has put out 19 polls.  In two cases, (the result of one poll) the change from one poll to the next was rather large.  That's just not enough to make me suspicious; if we had seen it happen maybe 4 or 5 times then I would start to wonder what was going on.

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