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View Diary: The pollsters: Who's good, who's not, and how bouncy they all are (49 comments)

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  •  are we to assume polling is (0+ / 0-)

    done strictly to "land-line" users ?
    and, for a given poll area, how to determine % of overall telecom users ? i gotta have SOMETHING to grab when i see results showing "tied," "close," "razor-thin" status.
    stupid question ?
    roughly half our employees, required to provide emergency contact information, list cell phones...
    times like these should come with a highball glass !

    Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.
    * Join: OBAMA'S TRUTH TEAM *

    by greenbird on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 03:06:57 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  i do see your "standard" but am still (0+ / 0-)

      a bit too jittery for my liking. ;)

      "Onward to the data. First, we need a standard to judge against, and a way to judge that standard. I decided to use a local regression of all polls from pollsters who sampled registered voters, called cell phones, and released polls at (reasonably) regular intervals over the entire period."

      ( and you do realize i'm a bird, right ? )

      Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.
      * Join: OBAMA'S TRUTH TEAM *

      by greenbird on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 03:19:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it depends on the pollster (0+ / 0-)

      More pollsters now are using a mix of landlines and cell phones -- but it's more expensive. Because pollsters don't always use the same methods in all their polls, the best way to tell is to check the methodological details for a particular poll.

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