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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Do today's polls hint at improving Democratic odds for the House? (114 comments)

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  •  I Have Never Gotten A Poll From Yougov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vote4Obamain2012

    How do that pick who gets polled?

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 06:32:09 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I Got Started About Two Years Ago (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Da Rock

      ...by clicking a You Gov advertisement on a political web site, may have been DKos, can't remember. The ads appeared frequently then, not so much any more. You can search You Gov on the web.
      Many of their political polls seem to ask your scaled agreement or disagreement with what are essentially Republican talking points. I have commented to them frequently regarding their chosen wording. Their chosen phrasing seems to me to tilt the questions unless you are very careful with your answers on the scale provided. The political polls are nearly always accompanied by commercial polls asking you to rate national chain business entities.

      •  As someone who used to create polls (3+ / 0-)

        for a major corporation - HOW you ask a question is as determinative as WHAT question you ask.

        Put a good pollster together with a good statistician and you can make up - down and white - black.

        Its a real art.

        Someday I'll tell you about J.D. Powers....

        •  And political polling outfits make more money (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Vote4Obamain2012, Supavash

          if they show a very close race, because then they are commissioned for more polls to keep a close eye on the tight race.  And news agencies benefit from a close election because they can really sell the drama of the election.  Given you can play with the crosstab demo's and weigh polls accordingly you basically end up with whatever the pollster believes to be the case.

          IIRC Rasmussen isn`t even commissioned anymore, he does the polling and then sells the results to outlets at a much cheaper rate than if they did one themselves.  Sure he needs to be close enough to the actual vote, but he can get there with a few late polling efforts.  Far out from an election he can cater his polling to push the gop narrative.  He goes on political cruises with the likes of Kristol and Rove afterall.  

          Only polling worth anything is the respective campaigns internal polling.  They pay many millions for the honest truth and get it - anything less and it's detrimental to their campaign.  

          I'd be willing to bet that the last round of internal polling before an election probably nails the result with a percentage point in every district in each battleground state.

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