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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Do today's polls hint at improving Democratic odds for the House? (114 comments)

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  •  People here have said that for MONTHS (12+ / 0-)

    People were saying that here in March.  Then April.  Then May.  Then June.  And now July.

    Nothing has changed.  The race is stable.  Obama has narrow leads in almost all contested swing states, he has comfortable leads in all other Kerry states, and he would win reelection today, as has been true all year.

    There still isn't anything to worry about.

    Until the next jobs/unemployment reports, which if they're bad again, I'll again sweat the ensuing weeks to see if that's finally a tipping emotional exercise I've gone through for several weeks, eventually breathing a sigh of relief each time.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:15:36 PM PDT

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    •  Jobs report + VP pick + RNC Convention = (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, WisVoter, Cat Servant

      Perfect storm for Romney.  Hopefully OFA has something up their sleeves - maybe unload the Ryan Budget attack here, but maybe they'll save that for their convention and not risk launching it and it getting ignored as the MSM will always cover running mate favorably and then the GOP convention will control that weeks narrative.  

      •  We'll see... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Vote4Obamain2012, DCCyclone, Supavash

        Nothing so far in this campaign has given Romney a bump yet except a brief rallying around by Republicans after Romney wrapped up the nomination.

        Keep in mind that there really isn't all that much of a bump to get.  Too many votes are locked in right now for the dials to move in any significant way.

        That said, I do think people should at least prepare themselves for Romney to be leading in most polls after his convention wraps up.  If Obama keeps that margin within 2 or 3 points, I'd consider him to be in good shape since the Democratic convention comes shortly thereafter.

      •  Only jobs report matters (0+ / 0-)

        The VP pick is a nothingburger, Romney's finalists aren't going to excite anyone.  There's no Rob Portman bump, and he's the best of the lot.

        The convention speech has potential, but Romney is so uber-cautious that he'll end up giving a very predictable speech.  The surprise would be if he actually used the opportunity to talk at length about himself.  But he's shunned it, as I pointed out in my comment on the recent Pew Research poll and Ed Kilgore points out here.

        The jobs report matters, that's the only thing with potential to move polling.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:07:32 PM PDT

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