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View Diary: StephenCLE's House Ratings - Part 4 (34 comments)

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  •  Hochul is not losing in NY 27 (1+ / 0-)
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    Andrew C White

    Take that to the bank.

    •  By the numbers she should not have a chance (1+ / 0-)
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      but I think you are right. The Republicans look like they are going to implode again and that she will retain her seat.

      I also think it likely that Democrats will win at least one and possible two of the mid-Hudson seats. Not sure things but in a Presidential year in districts that became more favorable to Democrats I like our chances.

      "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

      by Andrew C White on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:44:17 AM PDT

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    •  to the bank? (1+ / 0-)
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      It's an R+9, historically red district and Hochul is not especially conservative. She has a shot given that Collins is such a yutz, but she will have to persuade a lot of people who are conditioned to pulling the lever for a Republican.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:05:54 AM PDT

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      •  It's R+7 (1+ / 0-)
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        and she is very popular (relatively) with older republicans, especially women.  I do phone banking for her almost every day, and she is winning over a good chunk of the republican vote mostly because she is a strong campaigner, pretty conservative on gun issues, and just a really hard working and nice lady, while Collins is a complete asshole.  I'm actually pretty shocked as to how many older republicans I call that actually support her.

      •  That's what concerns me most (1+ / 0-)
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        The fact that NY-27 is not only red according to the PVI, but is also ancestrally republican.  I admit that Collins has made some unforced errors since I did my roundup of the Northeast region, but this is one case where I think presidential turnout hurts the democrat.  Hochul won the special election here during a period of anti-republican, mostly Ryan budget/medicare driven backlash in 2011.  Now with turnout up very high, she'll have to run a fantastic campaign in order to win.  

        As for Hayworth, Gibson, and Grimm, right now I have Hayworth and Gibson as Toss Up/Tilt Republican and Grimm Lean R.  They're all on relatively thin ice and I agree that Team Blue could definitely take those.  Hanna and Reed are on somewhat redder territory, so it'll take a few points swing nationally or a really great campaign by their challengers in order for them to get knocked off.

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