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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/26 (272 comments)

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  •  initial unemployment claims (10+ / 0-)

    Back down to 353k this week from 388k, which itself was up from 352k the week before. July is the month that auto plants typically shut down for a time as they switch over from one year's models to the next, and apparently the timing this year was different from what it normally is. The 4-week average is 367k, which is lower than it was for most of the spring but a bit higher than it was in the 1st quarter. It suggests that job growth in July may be somewhat better than it was in the spring.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:48:12 AM PDT

    •  We're already on (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, bythesea

      to the period that corresponds to the August release. But this news is definitely encouraging. I've given up trying to map these releases to the jobs numbers, though, as based on conspiracy's research, the relationship between them doesn't seem all that tight, at least not month to month.

      •  It was much stronger late last year and early this (7+ / 0-)

        But of late correlation seems to weaken somewhat. Going back to January 2011, monthly average initial claims at left, official job creation at right.

        Jan    427,000    110,000
        Feb    393,000    220,000
        Mar    395,000    246,000
        Apr    423,000    251,000
        May    427,000    54,000
        Jun    428,000    84,000
        Jul    412,000    96,000
        Aug    411,000    85,000
        Sep    418,000    202,000
        Oct    405,000    112,000
        Nov    396,000    157,000
        Dec    376,000    223,000
        Jan    377,000    275,000
        Feb    367,000    259,000
        Mar    365,000    143,000
        Apr    384,000    68,000
        May    376,000    77,000
        Jun    385,000    80,000
        Jul    364,000   

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:53:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  correlation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          The correlation in levels from one year to the next is weak, but it's generally been true that declines in claims are correlated with increases in job growth and vice versa.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:05:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  But if it stays in the 360k range (0+ / 0-)

          Do you think it means we see 100k job growth for July?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:24:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, itskevin

            But March had the lowest numbers in four years and it was actually the first month of decline.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:29:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  prob 100k or better (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, askew

            But I thought the underlying job growth pace was in the 100-150k range even before claims dropped. April and May were depressed by the same weather pattern that artifically inflated the winter months, and June had some fluky losses in individual sectors that aren't likely to be repeated.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:44:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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