Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Chamber of Commerce launches $6 million ad buy in 8 Senate races (108 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  WAA Poll: Obama ahead 48-40 in Ohio (16+ / 0-)
    This among LV's.

    Just throwing it out there.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 05:02:41 AM PDT

    •  <lordmike falls over> (8+ / 0-)

      Help?  I think I've fainted...

      We Ask America says what?

      No, that must be a typo... yes?  No?  It's real?

      < lordmike collapses in a smiling heap >


      by LordMike on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 05:14:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  18% of republicans chose Obama. (10+ / 0-)

      WAA said they went back into the field to see if this was correct, and got the same result.

      Apparently, not even republicans like Romney.

      Ultimately, I think Ohio will be Romeny's downfall.  The impact of the auto manufacturing & parts industy combined with Bain/outsourcing is just too high a hurdle for Willard.

      •  And then, you have the evangelicals.... (4+ / 0-) the Southwest who also hate Romney.  It's just not a good state for him.  Even the upscale exbruban folk who should be his base don't like him very much.


        by LordMike on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 06:44:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Saving the auto industry (4+ / 0-)

        was a really big deal to Ohio and Michigan. Even sane Republicans recognize that.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 06:44:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also, in North Indiana (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker

          Where else does the US auto industry have their plants?

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 06:47:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here's a map (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, LordMike

            It appears that, besides Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, Texas, Missouri and Kansas all have a lot of US auto assembly plants.

            I also know that Georgia's economy is heavily tied to the auto industry but their manufacturing plants are mostly for foreign auto makers (the biggest is Kia). Of course they may have a  lot of plants that make parts for US cars but I haven't been able to find out those statistics.

            2011 US Auto Plants Map

            •  Tennessee has a huge Nissan plant in Smyrna (0+ / 0-)

              It's where my mom's car was made (it has a sticker on the window to advertise it to the world that it was all made in Smyrna, TN below the three stars of the TN flag).

              Hail to the king, baby.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 07:18:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And a GM plant (Saturn) in Cool Springs (0+ / 0-)

                which, like Smyrna, is in the Nashville suburbs.

                Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                by fearlessfred14 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:08:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  And guess what they're going to be building there (0+ / 0-)

                Nissan LEAFs.  And batteries for Nissan LEAFs.  That's what's coming to Smyrna.

                The LEAF is a 100% electric vehicle.  And what do EVs get from the government?  Tax credits and rebates to buyers.  How do you think people working in that plant or in the industries supplying that plant or in the local economies benefiting from that plant feel about Obama wanting to increase EV credits versus Romney wanting to sink them?

                The batteries and LEAFs will start production this fall.  Right now all LEAFs and their batteries come from Japan (which keeps the price high due to strength of the Yen).

                In capitalist America, bank robs you!

                by madhaus on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 12:15:03 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Auto parts plants are just as important. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, Christopher Walker

            In 2009 the argument for saving the auto industry was based primarly on the impact it would have on the parts supply chain.

            Once these parts makers lost their GM business, they might go under themselves.  That was a major point of contention.  Ohio is loaded with parts suppliers.

        •  Paul Ryan voted for the auto bailout. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          This is an indirect, or maybe even a direct, reason why I think Paul Ryan would be a great pick for our side. In addition to the Medicare/entitlement stuff in the Ryan plan, he voted for Tarp, the tax on AIG, and the auto bailout. He'd either have to come up with a plausible explanation for why his stance is different from Obama's and Romney's, whatever that might be at the time, or risk creating a big mess amongst the base because of the "confusion" over his position.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:11:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Wow. Good on WAA for diligent double-checking (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, aamail6, bythesea

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 06:45:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  WAA is bad and crosstabs are unreliable (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I don't trust WAA as a rule.  I actually don't trust this poll, even though it's emotionally satisfying.  An 8-point lead seems high, Ohio is getting too many heavy ad buys from both sides, including from the Romney campaign itself which is advertising in very few states.  That shouldn't net Obama such a big lead.  Yes I know Quinnipiac said much the same last time at 47-39, but that, too, seemed high, and that was Q-poll's all-time high with others since saying it's narrower.

        I'd be shocked if private polling on either side says this is high single-digits anytime recently.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 07:02:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There may be a human element (0+ / 0-)

          Like you, even if private polling on either side shows a similar high-single digit race in Ohio, I suspect that campaign leaders would react with disbelief -- followed by reasonable sounding rationalizations, e.g. "outlier", "temporary", "aberration", etc.

          I'm feeling like Ohio could very well be the new Pennsylvania in Presidential politics, at least until a D Presidential candidate goes "all in" on the so-called new coalition.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 07:15:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I doubt Obama is up 8 either (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Up 5, I'd buy. OH is usually about R+1 but I could see it being about D+1 this cycle with the auto bailout issue and with Kasich hurting the GOP brand.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:38:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wait so TWO recent polls not left-leaning give (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod, tietack

          good numbers (Qpac has no affiliation I am aware of) so now people choose to make up their OWN numbers instead because they don't believe it? Makes no sense. But then people are going onoz Bain attacks aren't working national polls are too close, etc. The Ohio numbers reflect that the attacks ARE working and that Obama's campaign in the swing states are working. This is what kos and others have been pointing out. Why are people refusing to believe it?

          If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

          by DoctorWho on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 09:12:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Open question -- why better in Ohio than other (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            swing states.

            While I think there are good reasons for Bain / Autos to resonate better in Ohio, it's reasonable for people to have doubts.

            If you understood the users with doubts, you would understand that the doubts are limited to Ohio in a --relative-- sense, relative to Michigan, PA, etc.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 06:31:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  "Not left-leaning" does NOT equal "good poll" (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            WAA is a bad pollster, basically Rasmussen Junior.

            Quinnipiac is notoriously noisy.

            And the polling average is about Obama+5 even including those two.

            Even PPP's last effort said only Obama+3 at 47-44.

            If Obama is really pulling away in Ohio, that demands a rationale.  They've had a stronger state-level economic recovery than the nation as a whole, but most voters care more about the national economy, rightfully so since no state is safe from being dragged down by the nation as a whole at any moment.  Ohio also had the auto bailout, but that was true months ago when no one said Obama had a big lead.

            Whatever Obama has going for him in Ohio is offset by poor and worsening demographics.  There isn't a lot of nonwhite vote growth or high-education vote growth.  The state is getting older.  And it was always a center-right state.  Based on those more lasting fundamentals, Obama should be doing worse in Ohio than the nation as a whole.

            But the aforementioned factors clearly are giving him some kind of lead.

            But +8 doesn't smell right at all.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:26:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  This makes the Romney campaign go (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, happymisanthropy


      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 06:43:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think that moves Ohio to lean Obama for me (5+ / 0-)

      No seriously...the unemployment and job numbers in Ohio have been some of the best in America the last 3-4 months, and Dem fortunes are looking strong, especially in the northeastern part of the state.  There's still a lot of anti-Kasich backlash over the budget that crushed the schools in Cleveland's upper class suburbs, we have a relatively popular incumbent Senator holding about a 10-point lead, and congresswoman Sutton looks like the slight favorite, at worst a 50/50 shot to beat congressman Renacci in an R+4 district mashup in OH-16.  

      Everything's looking mighty fine up here right now.  

      By the way, WAA just had Romney up by 9 in Missouri, so unless if that sample and this one are somehow out of whack (Ras just had Obama up in OH 46-42 last week so I doubt it), I'm really feeling great about the Buckeye State.

      With the way things are going here right now, Bob Gibbs and Bill Johnson better look out as well.

      •  Gibbs (0+ / 0-)

        Is his opponent legit? I know Wilson is going after Johnson again, so that should be competitive.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:40:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gibbs's opponent (0+ / 0-)

          Is Joyce-Healy Abrams.  She's raised 410k so far this cycle according to race tracker and has about 250k in the bank.  As far as I can tell her political experience is limited, so her profile isn't as strong as Sutton or Wilson obviously, but what people have to remember is that this district is massively different than the old OH-18.  Only Coshocton, Holmes, Knox, and part of Tuscarawas counties remain from the old OH-18...the rest of the new OH-7 comes from Lorain, Medina, Richland, Ashland, and other counties, areas that are nominally republican but don't know who the heck Bob Gibbs is.  

          Cook rates it Likely R...I'm not sure if its Likely or Lean, I do my section on the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend.

    •  Very encouraging (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, DoctorWho, askew, stevenaxelrod

      Ohio is a decent state for Obama, because of the unionization in many parts of it. If the Bain Capital attacks have worked anywhere, it is Ohio.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 07:39:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (165)
  • Community (76)
  • 2016 (49)
  • Environment (48)
  • Elections (46)
  • Bernie Sanders (42)
  • Culture (41)
  • Republicans (40)
  • Hillary Clinton (34)
  • Climate Change (33)
  • Media (33)
  • Education (32)
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership (29)
  • Labor (28)
  • Barack Obama (26)
  • Civil Rights (26)
  • Law (25)
  • Congress (25)
  • Science (24)
  • Spam (24)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site