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View Diary: Sunday Train: Rescuing the Exurb from its Design (42 comments)

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  •  So if I have a hybrid or electric vehicle the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BruceMcF, Odysseus, ManhattanMan

    problem goes away?  There is a substantial segment that likes the semi-rural lifestyle and is willing to pay something to have it.  Unless the economics really become impossible we will continue to see exurban development.  New houses are going up in my exurb right now.

    Where are we, now that we need us most?

    by Frank Knarf on Sun Jul 29, 2012 at 07:25:14 PM PDT

    •  There is a substantial segment ... (13+ / 0-)

      ... that likes the semi-rural lifestyle and is willing to pay something to have it.

      People can have a desire, but effective demand comes out of actual incomes, and being affordable for a smaller proportion of the population is a hit on total effective demand. And its the numbers willing to pay what is required to have it versus the numbers of properties that have already been developed are what determines real estate supply and demand. If Exurban development is overbuilt for $3+/gallon gas, $6/gallon will drain demand still further.

      As far as individual areas ... this is a national trend, but there is always variations around a trendline. From the first link in the essay:

      In all, 99 of the 100 fastest-growing exurbs and outer suburbs saw slower or no growth in 2011 compared with the mid-decade housing peak – the exception being Spotsylvania County, Va., located south of the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, which has boomed even in the downturn. Nearly three-fourths of the top 100 outer suburban areas also saw slower growth compared with 2010, hurt by $3-a-gallon gasoline last year that has since climbed higher.
      "slower or no growth" is not the same as no growth at all, buts a substantial break in the trend, and that break in the trend hits at well under $6/gallon gas.

      As far as an electric car or hybrid cutting down total cost ~ that's a trade-off of higher purchase price for lower operating cost, and a trade-off well worth making at typical exurban vehicle miles driven, but its still a net increase in transport cost.

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      by BruceMcF on Sun Jul 29, 2012 at 07:36:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The economics... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peregrine kate

      ...already are impossible.

      The gas prices that allow those new houses are the result of huge subsidies paid by Americans who live in cities.

      When calculating the size of these subsidies, don't forget the cost of having to fight a war every ten years to secure our oil supply.

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