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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: New swing state polls are good news for Democrats across the board (94 comments)

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  •  Two questions (0+ / 0-)

    First, they asked respondents if they'd vote for Bentivolio or "someone else" or "not sure", and then only then asked if they'd support Bentivolio or "write in Nancy Casis" or "someone else" and "not sure".  I'd say this makes it fairly accurate.

    •  No (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, MichaelNY

      the first question was fine.  You can't give them the name of someone who won't be on the ballot and offer them as a choice.  Everyone will not have someone to remind them that someone else is running and what her name is when they're voting.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 07:08:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This worked for Charlie Wilson (5+ / 0-)

      Wilson won OH-06 when Strickland gave it up to run for Governor in 2006.  Wilson infamously and humiliatingly fucked up and failed to make the primary ballot.  So he ran a write-in primary campaign, and won easily against a nobody who nevertheless was competent enough to make the ballot.

      Wilson went on to win easily in November, and get reelected big in 2008.

      Then he got beat in 2010.

      Given the precedent, I'm not shocked this is working again.  Of course, I'm surprised it could work at all......it's a helluva lot of work identifying likely primary voters and making sure they're educated on the write-in and who is being promoted.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 07:09:51 PM PDT

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      •  It worked just two years ago (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, MichaelNY

        for Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, though Cassis arguably has a steeper hill to climb as she will likely need a majority, while Murkowski only needed a plurality against two candidates.  However, write-in primary wins aren't necessarily difficult; then-DC Mayor Anthony Williams easily won renomination as a write-in in 2002 by a massive majority, after his volunteers botched his petition filings by submitting lots of fake and/or ineligible names.

        Regarding polling, IIRC in 2010 Alaska polls both offered Sen. Murkowski as a write in option (stating that a write in was needed) and naming the candidates on the ballot plus an unspecified someone else, which of course meant Murkowski for most people who so responded.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 08:19:46 PM PDT

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        •  I thought of Murkowski BUT... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Odysseus, itskevin, MichaelNY

          ...decided not to add her as an example in my comment because she's too dissimilar as a sitting U.S. Senator with a massive warchest when she ran her write-in campaign.

          Too many essential distinctions there where Murkowski had clear advantages a House open-seat candidate doesn't have.

          But the Wilson example clearly is very close.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 08:25:18 PM PDT

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      •  I would think it's easier in a primary (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, LordMike, MichaelNY

        than in a general election, considering primary voters might be more tuned in than general election voters.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 08:55:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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