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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Can you actually poll a write-in race? We'll soon see (58 comments)

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  •  Non-farm payrolls increased by 163 000 in July, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bharat, askew, supercereal

    unemployment rate increased to 8.3%.

    Much better than expected.

    •  Mixed at best, unemployment rate matters... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      ...more than I think the media and political junkies pretend.

      I said that when the rate went down despite poor jobs reports, and I say that now as the rate goes up despite a good report.

      But, just as bad news spin undermined the unemployment rate ticking down in some previous months, a good spin will help offset the uptick in the rate now.

      Ultimately I hope this becomes a wash.  But I think 8.3 stands out as the only thing people really remember.  At least I think it won't be viewed as a negative trend, but rather unemployment remaining flat, as what gets absorbed in the public psyche is the 8.3-8.2-8.1-8.2-8.2-8.3 monthly series, rather than just the much more recent back end of the series that shows a (probably faux) uptick.

      On net, I think the public ends up seeing "unemployment still flat, rate not improving, but at least maybe jobs are picking up a teeny bit."

      And politically, this leaves the polling fixed in place.  The jobs number and news spin will be good enough to prevent people from deciding in August to finally inch away from Obama because of the economy.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:40:22 AM PDT

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      •  I'd rather have 163 and 8.3 (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bharat, jj32, askew, KingofSpades, supercereal

        Than 63 and 8.1.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:43:34 AM PDT

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        •  Private sector added 172x, public cut 9x (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, itskevin, askew

          Cuts in the public sector workforce continue to act as a drag.  But the Republicans should be happy, right?

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 06:07:08 AM PDT

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        •  agree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike

          The household survey has a LOT of noise, on the level of +- 400k per month whereas with the employer survey it's more like +- 100k. The household survey seems to have gotten a very bad sample this month, with reported jobs down 195k. This is highly likely to be reversed next month, to be more in line with the employer survey. Over longer periods (I use 12 months) they tend to converge.

          If the reverse had happened this month (bad employer survey, good household survey) I would have expected the household numbers to take a nosedive next month.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 08:52:43 AM PDT

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      •   (0+ / 0-)

        Than 63 and 8.1.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:43:41 AM PDT

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      •  I disagree (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, askew, MBishop1

        Job creation DOUBLED in the last month. I think we get some good earned media off of this if nothing else. The fact that Rs are blasting press releases on how UI increased with no mention at all of the jobs numbers, I think it becomes transparent that they're rooting for failure.

        Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

        by Bharat on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:46:24 AM PDT

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        •  Annoying more than anything else (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          It just couldn't be unanimous could it. Reading the first paragraph of the report was like the media calling Florida for Gore then taking it back all over again. Argh! So frustrating.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 06:12:20 AM PDT

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        •  No we won't... (0+ / 0-)

          Here's the ABC News headline:

          "Unemployment increases to 8.3%"

          That's it.

          That's what the media will focus on.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 07:01:42 AM PDT

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        •  It's always transparent they want failure BUT... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, Bharat

          ...voters haven't been willing to punish them or reward Dems for that.

          I think this is actually a good sign for the economy itself, don't get me wrong.  It would be unusual if the July number proves a fluke, usually good or bad months come in twos or threes.

          But politically, I think the uptick in unemployment matters in public perception, people make something of that and as I've always said, that's the only economic data point voters ever pay attention to or remember.  But this time, the uptick is offset by otherwise good jobs numbers and news headlines about them.

          So I agree with your argument, but I think it's only half of what affects public perception in today's numbers.  The other half looks bad (even though it's almost certainly mere statistical noise), so it's a wash.

          And, a wash is good for us because we're winning, so in that regard I'm not the least bit bothered.  Mitt can't afford any good news at all on the economy going forward, since he's behind and needs consistent bad news to overcome it.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 07:08:03 AM PDT

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      •  I sort of agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, askew

        I think for one month, a 0.1 increase in the rate is okay, because the increase in jobs will be covered just as much, if not more. On Yahoo one of the major stories is "US adds more jobs than expected in July."

        •  Plus, the increase could be for a good reason (0+ / 0-)

          More people actively looking for work, if they think it's there.

          There are many things questionable about gov't employment statistics, but one thing I never really understood is why people ("Discouraged Workers" or some such) who claim they gave up looking for work are excluded from the unemployment stats, as if they either just found a job or left the country.

          36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 07:15:55 AM PDT

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    •  A good, but annoying figure. (0+ / 0-)

      I guess it's mixed.  Latino and AA unemployment went down, also.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 06:27:50 AM PDT

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      •  Those subsamples are not valid (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701

        The minority subgroups don't have enough surveys to be statistically valid except for long-term trends.  Ignore the month-to-month fluctuations altogether.  The long-term trend is the same as for the entire population:  slowly declining unemployment.  But that's always true, racial groups always move in tandem, even if not always the same amount.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 07:37:53 AM PDT

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