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View Diary: You have your polls, Dick Morris has THE ONE TRUE poll (98 comments)

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  •  Mind you... (4+ / 0-)

    +3.9% is still within the margin of error... but he definitely is trending up.

    •  If you're looking at an average of poll numbers (1+ / 0-)
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      Flint

      the MoE is much lower than the MoE of the individual polls because the combined sample size is much larger.  That's one of the reasons why poll averages are useful.

      It's also true that not all values within the MoE have an equal probability of being wrong.  Rather, the probability distribution is a normal (bell) curve.  Near the boundaries of the MoE, for instance, the probability that the poll leader is ahead is above 90%, even though the estimate is still technically within the margin of error.  The MoE is intended to be very conservative (typically, there's a maximum of a 5% chance the poll is "wrong" if the numbers are outside the MoE).

      To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

      by sneakers563 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 05:00:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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