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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Obama moves into two-point lead over Romney (68 comments)

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  •  I guess you missed that part about (1+ / 0-)
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    Delilah

    'not lending itself to rigorous analysis'. It is very hard to tease out, for example, just how many votes Sarah Palin cost John McCain.

    Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

    by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:23:11 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  No, that's why I copied it (0+ / 0-)

      Silver admits that he cannot analyze the effect.  He says nothing about whether there would be one or not.  That's why he sticks to the in-state effect, which is amenable to  Silver-style analytics.  To truly evaluate the potential effects you would need to have national or extensive state polls that could determine whether a particular VP candidate moves the polls.  Knowing whether a woman VP nominee from another state would affect how a Virginian might vote has nothing to do with in-state effects, but sure could determine the election.

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