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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Obama moves into two-point lead over Romney (68 comments)

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  •  No, that's why I copied it (0+ / 0-)

    Silver admits that he cannot analyze the effect.  He says nothing about whether there would be one or not.  That's why he sticks to the in-state effect, which is amenable to  Silver-style analytics.  To truly evaluate the potential effects you would need to have national or extensive state polls that could determine whether a particular VP candidate moves the polls.  Knowing whether a woman VP nominee from another state would affect how a Virginian might vote has nothing to do with in-state effects, but sure could determine the election.

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