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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Busted by Democrats, Crossroads pulls bogus ad off the air (92 comments)

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  •  MN-08: does anyone in the district actually (9+ / 0-)

    support Tarryl Clark in the primary? I look around my neighborhood and there's a fairly even split between Anderson and Nolan yard-signs, but nothing for Clark. And in every conversation I've had with friends and acquaintances, the discussion comes down to the pros and cons of Anderson and Nolan and the possibilities for unseating Cravaack. In all honesty, Clark just doesn't come up...

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:22:50 AM PDT

    •  Interesting...Thanks For The Local Insights.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot, DCCyclone, bumiputera

      Do you live in Duluth or the Iron Range?  My hunch is that Clark will probably win in the south side of the district where her advertising advantage is more likely to play, but with Nolan's home turf being in the Brainerd area even that might not save Clark.

    •  I have not found one yet (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot, DCCyclone, bumiputera

      I have honestly to goodness not met a single resident of MN-8 that is a Clark supporter.

      From everything I can tell, Anderson is going to win Duluth and perhaps areas like Proctor, Hermantown (Duluth suburbs), Bemidji (He is an alum of Bemdji State) and Ely (He is an Ely native, "favorite son" effect) but Nolan is going to absolutely crush in areas like Brainerd, Hibbing, Virginia, Grand Rapids, etc. Clark may not win a single municipality outside of Benton County, if even there.

      •  That sounds about right to me... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, OGGoldy, bumiputera, itskevin

        Nolan has all sorts of institutional advantages over Anderson, and while I personally like Jeff and his politics I will be very surprised if Nolan doesn't win on Tuesday.

        Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

        by angry marmot on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:05:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not sure you meant (0+ / 0-)

        Benton County, which is still in MN-06.

        Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

        by angry marmot on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:52:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Anderson should also do well on the Range (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        angry marmot

        Anderson should do well in both Duluth and the Range, though I can't say whether he will actually carry them.  St. Louis County (which includes both Duluth and the Iron Range) will only be about the half the vote in the primary, however.  Anderson's great challenge will be to do well enough in St. Louis County to make up for his extreme weakness elsewhere.  That is why I agree that Nolan probably has this.

        •  I dunno (0+ / 0-)

          He will certainly overperform Clark. But Nolan seems much more culturally akin to me and my fellow Rangers (I was born in Hibbing, and raised in a few small towns outside of there). My guess is that overall Anderson carries St. Louis County due to the sheer number of DFL voters in Duluth. But He will certainly be much weaker in the rest of the district, including the other Range Counties.

          •  Thanks for the insight (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            I've been wondering how things were going on the Range.  If you talk to the Anderson people, they will tell you they are confident they will carry the Range, largely due to his demaoguing the mining issue and his local connections.  (His dad was a Steelworker and just about every local elected official on the Range is supporting him.)  If he can't carry the Range, he's dead in the water.  He may carry Duluth, but there's a lot of support for Nolan here, as well.

            •  Endorsements (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27, bumiputera

              I have to say, I was actually shocked to see Rukavina, Melin, and such endorse Anderson. Don Ness makes sense, given the Counsil President/Mayor relationship. I am actually upset with Ness for not running himself, as he would have put Cravaack away by 20 points on Day 1, the same goes for Tony Sertich, although Sertich would have likely done so by 30 on Day 1.

              •  As I Said Previously..... (0+ / 0-)

                ....the DCCC's decidedly nonaggressive recruitment in this race tells me they are confident they will win this seat back no matter who the Democrat they nominate.

                •  If the candidates were Nolan Anderson (0+ / 0-)

                  I would agree with you. But Clark has shown to be fantastically weak with this electorate. And with outside interests propping up her campaign, she has been doing some damage, although likely not so much that it sinks Nolan, or slingshots her passed Anderson.

                  •  Clark was the chosen one (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    OGGoldy

                    Tarryl Clark was the chosen one of DC Democratic establishment.  Shows how out of touch they can be.  They don't seem to understand that no amount money can turn an ineffective candidate into an effective one.  (Can you say Mitt Romney?)

                    •  Maybe they felt she deserved support for having (0+ / 0-)

                      taken on Bachmann last time around.  I could see that.  It was a thankless task, trying to talk sense to a district full of crazies.

                      The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain, is floating in mid-air, until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams

                      by Alice Olson on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 12:27:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  I know a handful of Clark supporters (4+ / 0-)

      Believe it or not, I know a handful of Clark supporters in Duluth-- few enough that I could probably name them all, but that would bore most readers.

      Without exception, however, everyone I have spoken to in the last month who is undecided has been trying to decide between Anderson and Nolan.

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