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  •  Since y'all follow local politics more than I do (0+ / 0-)

    What would you say are the most likely 4 senate and 6 house seats to flip to return control back to the Dems?

    Despite the fact that the DFL dominated the legislature for so long, it doesn't seem like there are many obviously flippable seats, but moreso a lot of rural seats that were waiting for a tidal wave election to finally be flipped.

    Looking at the map, it looks like most of the pickups in the Senate would have to come from SE Minnesota and the inner-ring burbs. Suburban districts like 36, 37, 42, and 53 (where I live) all look competitive.

    In the SE I'd say 20, 24, 25, 26, and 28 should all be competitive. Rochester needs to break for the Dems already.

    Anyway, I'm not sure how many seats the DFL lost to redistricting, but I'm sure it's a few with the population losses in the core cities, so it looks like less than 50/50 odds that they'll take back the legislature.

    Am I close?

    •  I did a seat by seat diary about this (0+ / 0-)

      I won't be a dick and hyper link them in another diary, but such information has been compiled here. It wasn't just Democrats that lost seats in redistricting. the entire outstate map was greatly changed. But Minneapolis and St. Paul each lost a full senate seat. The most likely to flip, as I had speculated are along the Mississippi River near the Iowa border, In the Rochester area, as well as suburban seats in the south and east metro. Also, Morrie Lanning's seat is almost certain to flip in Moorhead, but that will be offset by a near certain loss of Larry Hosch's seat, due to his untimely retirement at the age of 34.

      I put the odds at taking the senate at about 90%, and the House at about 75%.

      •  Those are quite high odds (0+ / 0-)

        I'm more conservative I guess and put both houses at about a coin flip to switch.

        Dems most gettable Senate seats (names aren't necessarily incumbents, district in parenthesis):

        Jermey Miller (28)
        John Carlson (5)
        April King (42)
        Ted Daley (51)
        Keith Downey (49)
        John Pederson (14)
        Ted Lillie (53)
        Pam Wolf (37)
        Joe Gimse (17)
        Benjamin Kruse (36)

        House seats:

        Derrick Lehrke (54A)
        Rich Murray (27A)
        *Primary (04A)
        Stacey Stout (43A)
        Brian Wermerskirchen (20B)
        Diane Anderson (51A)
        King Banaian (14B)
        Mandy Benz (37A)
        Carolyn McElfatrick (05B)
        Larry Howes (05A)

        •  We look at this a little differently (0+ / 0-)

          McElfatrick I didn't even count as a pickup as she is facing off against incumbent DFLer Tom Anzelc, so that isn't a pickup at all.

          Also, how does that list not have Morrie Lanning's seat as the #1 pickup in the house? Obama and Klobuchar will likely win this district 2:1 and 3:1 respectively, and there really are no other Republicans in the city limits Moorhead that isn't named Morrie Lanning. That seat is a 99.9% flip.

          With the way the house seats were redrawn, and the copious amount of retirements, there are going to be a TON of freshman coming into St. Paul in January.

          •  Ah (0+ / 0-)

            I see that you called it 4a with a primary next to an asterisk. I missed that one. My oversight, as Lanning currently represents 9a.

            •  Yea, (0+ / 0-)

              the GOP candidate for that race is subject to a primary, I could have made that less confusing I suppose.

              This rating order is entirely based on partisan numbers and does not take the candidates into account at all, so take it for what it's worth.

              Also, as far as the Anzelc/McElfatrick thing, I wasn't calling it a pick-up, but at the same time if she wins the DFL loses a seat, right?

              So we need to beat her just as much as we need to take over currently held GOP seats.

              •  I used to work for Tom Anzelc (0+ / 0-)

                I used to be his field director. his campaign manager,Aaron Brown, used to work under me. believe me when I tell you he is in no danger in an Itasca County district against McElfatrick.

                •  Aaron wasn't quite as certain, (0+ / 0-)

                  but he certainly shared your general outlook.

                  I'm not saying you or Aaron are wrong, I'm sure the two of you know a heck of a lot more about that part of the state.

                  But she did raise more individual contributions than Anzelc, so while she may be unlikely to win, it's certainly not out of the question that she could. At least in my view.

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