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View Diary: Michael's Senate ratings, 8/19/2012 (48 comments)

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  •  I drove through the Kalispell area (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    a week ago, and I didn't get a sense from the locals that Rehberg was leading in the area. Seeing as Flathead Co. is the base of any GOP win in the state (it gave McCain a 9400 margin while the rest of the state gave him an 11100 margin, and the next worst county gave McCain a 4600 edge), I'd say Tester has a better than even chance of getting reelected. And Montanans generally hate Romney. The big question in North Dakota is how the oil boom will affect the state's voting. Hopefully for the better.

    -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

    by Whitty on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 08:48:46 AM PDT

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    •  I do have Tester down as the most likely hold (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      From those races I highlighted.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 12:16:15 PM PDT

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    •  Oil boom (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      At least in a direct sense - in terms of the new voters who migrated to the state for oil money - I believe it has pushed ND further to the right, and that seems to be showing up in the few polls of Presidential voting we've seen out of the state. However, I do not think it puts the state out of reach for a moderate Democratic Senatorial candidate. Only time will tell, but Heitkamp seems to be the kind of authentic, moderate, credible candidate who has a good chance of winning the state.

      I'd like to hear more about Montanans "hating Romney." If so, I guess that means they'll hold their noses and vote for him, because polls have shown him with a big lead over Obama. So is your feeling that their votes for Romney will be a "lesser of evils" choice, and therefore will lack coattails?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 01:18:13 PM PDT

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