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View Diary: Epidemic of "Premature Congratulatory" Disorder (PCD) or "Its the Voter Suppression, Stupid!" (36 comments)

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  •  I take exception to that representation (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO

    For one thing, the discussion yesterday was about what graphs to show where. The current state of play, as seen in this morning's APR, is one chart with everything but the trackers, and one chart with just the trackers.

    For another thing -- well, what I just said. Whether you agree with DemFromCT or not, it isn't a matter of excluding "the bad outliers... but not the good outliers."

    •  That's what he's been doing (0+ / 0-)

      The two polls he excludes (gallup, ras) are republican outliers.  There are democratic outliers, but DemFromCT has always included those.  You can drink the kool aid if you want, but that's not intellectually honest polling analysis.  

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 05:46:33 PM PDT

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      •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

        Yeah, you're probably the smartest kid in the room.

        Look, given DemFromCT's broad approach, anything he does is going to be some sort of kludge. "Kool aid" doesn't enter into it. Are some people incapable of following that? Maybe so.

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 07:47:43 PM PDT

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        •  Ok you're right (0+ / 0-)

          His analysis is fine.  Obama is crushing Romney.  We're gonna win!!!

          Happy?

          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

          by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:08:35 PM PDT

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          •  yup, that's exactly what I said! (0+ / 0-)

            Oh, snap. It isn't remotely what I said. How strange!

            Up here on the planet surface, DemFromCT's mashup is maybe two points sweeter than Nate Silver's -- and, yes, it's probably too sweet. Up here, DemFromCT wrote about his approach, and a civil but critical discussion ensued. Up here, he has been pretty damn clear that he thinks Obama is ahead, but not a lock. Up here, I've argued with him about parts of his analysis, and we've had, y'know, actual substantive discussions about it, as have other posters.

            And by the way, up here, "outlier" generally refers to an individual observation, not to the entire work product of some pollster or another. Of course I'm not suggesting that the definition of "outlier" dictates any substantive conclusions.

            Election protection: there's an app for that!
            Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

            by HudsonValleyMark on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:12:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  actually Rasmussen has Obama +2 (x 2 days) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Greenfinches

        and Gallup has Romney +2.

        Doesn't matter to me that Ras has Obama up, the methodology sucks. I don't all of a sudden include it because it's favorable.

        Gallup has issues as well. All explained here. And note the expert opinion.

        But the fact that the trackers are every day gives them outsize influence. No denying it.

        Note also I provide a link for the combined result, in addition to showing the trackers. And note also you can add the trackers back in.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 08:25:50 PM PDT

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        •  That's fine, you can do it however you like (0+ / 0-)

          And it's good that you have links to the trackers.  But if you're just averaging different polls together without regard for differences in methodology, that average is meaningless as a statistic.  And excluding certain trackers is rather arbitrary unless you have some defined set of rules for exclusion.  Gallup and Ras are not the only polls with questionable methodology and analysis.

          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

          by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:14:35 PM PDT

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          •  they aren't excluded (0+ / 0-)

            they way you imply. In fact, they are there.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 04:15:54 AM PDT

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          •  PS I am completely certain that when (0+ / 0-)

            pollster.com put these charts together, the ability to include and exclude pollsters was integral to the concept. In other words, this is how the charts were meant to be used.

            Gallup is transparent enough to understand that there is a question about the inclusion/undercount of minority voters 9references are there) and I wish everyone were.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:17:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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