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View Diary: Myth of the High Speed Rail "Boondoggle" (302 comments)

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  •  It's not the most important thing (0+ / 0-)

    but it would certainly be nice.  But, I think we'd see a fair number of people doing the same if they were going to go down to SoCal for a day on the train.  People do this on Cal Train all the time.  A bike is a great last mile, or couple of miles, transit option when paired with a train.

    There revolution will not be televised. But it will be blogged, a lot. Probably more so than is necessary.

    by AoT on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 11:27:58 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  So half the people on the train have bikes? (0+ / 0-)

      No?  25%?  10%?  

      Like I said, can we agree that this is not a common use case?

      •  I'd say that starting out, based on current (0+ / 0-)

        numbers of bike commuters and bike commuters that use CalTrain and BART I'd say 5% would be a pretty high number to shoot for if the train were to start running today.  Given that those number are increasing by a lot every year and HSR from LA to SF doesn't start running until 2026, I would say we could see about 15-20% use.  Which is a majority of users, but is pretty common.

        There revolution will not be televised. But it will be blogged, a lot. Probably more so than is necessary.

        by AoT on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:42:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think you can assume that the same (0+ / 0-)

          number of people will bring a bicycle on a train from SF to LA as do so on an ordinary commute.

          When you are traveling that far you are often traveling for more than one day (so you have a bag or two), you are often on business (so you may be wearing a suit), and you are more likely to be higher income or traveling for your company and so less likely to be cost conscious about paying for a taxi or a rental car.

          •  You're right about that, for sure (0+ / 0-)

            We can't base future numbers for HSR strictly on current  commute numbers.  

            When you are traveling that far you are often traveling for more than one day (so you have a bag or two), you are often on business (so you may be wearing a suit), and you are more likely to be higher income or traveling for your company and so less likely to be cost conscious about paying for a taxi or a rental car.
            So, wearing a suit or having baggage does not at all preclude you from taking the train and riding a bike.  And if we assume a standard graph for the increase in price of gas then by 2026, when the full line between LA and SF is done, then we're looking at around, at the very least, $10 a gallon.  Assuming current rate of supply, which is unlikely.  So, if you work somewhere in the Bay Area and you have to go down to LA sometimes then it makes sense that you should take the train and ride.  Unless you're an idiot and can't figure out how to carry things on a bike.

            Do you live in California?

            There revolution will not be televised. But it will be blogged, a lot. Probably more so than is necessary.

            by AoT on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:16:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Does not preclude does not mean it is (0+ / 0-)

              more likely.

              So, wearing a suit or having baggage does not at all preclude you from taking the train and riding a bike.
              Nope... but it sure as heck makes it less likely.

              Try putting a garment bag on the back of a bike and then biking in summer in a suit to a business meeting and coming in sweating like a pig.

              Not very workable.

              And if we assume a standard graph for the increase in price of gas then by 2026, when the full line between LA and SF is done, then we're looking at around, at the very least, $10 a gallon.
              You will have to point me to that standard graph.  Here's gasoline prices in constant dollars since 1918.  I'm not seeing the trend you seem to suggest.  http://inflationdata.com/....  What with shale oil and such I would be surprised if there is such a large increase.
              So, if you work somewhere in the Bay Area and you have to go down to LA sometimes then it makes sense that you should take the train and ride.
              Yes, because most people who travel from SF to LA on business are bike riders and don't mind getting their luggage to a hotel on a bike and then going from meeting to meeting on a bike lugging a laptop and maybe a briefcase on the back.

              Can we get real?

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