Skip to main content

View Diary: Economy? What economy? Romney again pushes debunked welfare attack (80 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  nothing is utterly meaningless 3 months out (0+ / 0-)
    •  Yeah... (0+ / 0-)

      that Palin bounce sure took John McCain to the White House.

      And yeah, plenty is utterly meaningless three months out....

      nothing means a thing until after Labor Day...

      Or really a couple of weeks after the last convention.

      •  Paul Ryan is not Palin (0+ / 0-)

        and a global economic collapse isn't going to aide us again.

        •  Well.... (0+ / 0-)

          there you are

          Ryan isn't Palin, and has not provided a bounce.

          So, because Wisconsin is still in a statistical tie makes the poll after Ryan announcement genuinely unremarkable.

          •  If nothing means anything right now then why do we (0+ / 0-)

            have 100's of diaries stating how Obama is sure to win??

            Why?  Because we are almost certain he will win because poll trends are showing this, as we know that nothing is meaningless 3 months out.  

            It is highly irresponsible to make it seem that we should not make analysis and report and then act on any polls that shows any type of trend...even though we don't like or agree with.

             I hate the meme of "oh it's meaningless" every time we have a poll that shows a bounce in favor of them.  We must act when we see this stuff, not ignore it until 2 weeks prior to the election.  If we see a poll showing a tightening in a swing state and the poll is accurate and not trash and the poll was done by one of our poll people none the less..... then jeezzzz don't dismiss it!  Don't just say "ignore it"! Act on it!  

          •  Obama was ahead by 4 to 6 points. If we are at a (0+ / 0-)

            tie now then that is not good.

            •  Okay (0+ / 0-)

              I find that people bound and determined to enjoy catastrophic expectations are impossible to reassure...

              So if you want to glom on to someone to deal with your concerns in the way which is both counter productive, and accomplish nothing...

              go bother someone else.

              •  My way of dealing with poll numbers is to not to (0+ / 0-)

                dismiss them but to send even more money to help in this state....spend more time helping in phone banks and to make sure the numbers reverse way before the election at hand.  If I were to dismiss them, then I wouldn't feel the need, would I?  and thus would more on to other places that perhaps wouldn't even need my help as much.

                •  My way of dealing (0+ / 0-)

                  with poll numbers comes of three decades of being married to a guy in the polling business.

                  And having an understanding of what polling does and doesn't do.

                  But I have wasted too much time on someone who has no understanding of context, statewide polling, and how opinions are tracked over the long term.

                  •  Yeah I teach the subject at a college (0+ / 0-)

                    level to people who wish to one day become employed on of several professions such as your husband.....perhaps he took my class.

                    This conversation has zero to do with an actual debate on how polls are created, run, at what times they may or may not be AS RELEVANT in context to the season as other times but rather telling anybody, especially would be boots on the ground,  to dismiss any valid poll as meaningless.  Don't do it.  

                    When you do that you are saying, "Hey, we are winning regardless of what anyone says so nothing more to see here...don't believe it" and guess what?  People stop looking!!  This is especially true with young voters (those I teach) whom I see constantly dismissing their own need to vote or be active in the campaign because they believe it to be already won!  I kid you not.  

                     Is that what you want?  People to dismiss a turn in a swing state that should be ours but now we are dealing with the dynamic of a VP candidate who may or may not make the state theirs.  Sure it's a bounce, but will it stick?  I will not wait and see by dismiss a valid poll.  After the Walker debacle??? No way!  

                     What happens if the numbers stick after labor day...then do you go back and find all those people you turned the other way and say "Just kidding...we need to get moving was real?"

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site