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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New PPP poll finds Elizabeth Warren trailing Scott Brown by five (293 comments)

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  •  538 shifted WI to "lean Obama" (4+ / 0-)

    in its update after yesterday's PPP poll. While it's not perfect I do believe that the sophistication of its model makes it by far the best publicly available analysis of the state of the race and this looks a reasonable call to me. They did also include the whacko MI poll, but this barely dented Obama's lead in the state, which remains "safe" on their projection.

    According to 538 Wisconsin is now more vulnerable than New Hampshire or Nevada, although at 70% probability it must be said that Obama remains the favorite there. At this point I'd be really surprised if the Romney campaign doesn't make a significant play for the state and try to build on the Ryan bump. They could really do with trying to build an alternative route to 270 in case they fail to capture VA.

    •  With The Kind of Money They Have..... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, sethtriggs

      .....expect Romney to make a significantly play everywhere from Oregon to New Mexico to Minnesota after Labor Day.

      •  Only you will expect that (6+ / 0-)

        No one else expects that.

        Romney is clearly if very narrowly trailing in a majority of the 8 states where he and Obama are currently advertising.  Obama has 247 electoral votes in his pocket outside those 8 states, and gets elected losing any 5 and up to 7 of the 8.  And all this after Romney and his allies have used up much of their best messaging in a couple hundred million dollars of attack ads.

        Team Red is going to focus their post-convention resources on those same 8 states because those are their best bets and they still haven't been able to truly secure any of them.  Diverting from those only carries more risk than reward, since those other states you cite are much taller orders for them.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:04:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Minor math mistake (0+ / 0-)

          Obama can lose any 4, not any 5, of the 8 tossup states and still win.  He needs 4 with New Hampshire/Iowa/Nevada/one more, just the first 3 don't get to 270.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:46:06 AM PDT

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      •  Swiftboating, Willie Horton, ni66ers on welfare (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The Repubs know how to play ugly. Very very ugly. And they got the bucks to make an ugly game all across the board.

      •  I doubt it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        So far he's run a very narrowly focussed campaign, with almost all the serious money going into the Obama 08 states with margins of victory under 10%. The only exceptions have been Indiana, which both campaigns seem for now at least to assume will revert to the Republicans anyway, and Nevada, which has at times polled relatively weakly for Obama and which has been one of the most severely hit by the economic crisis.

        There would have to be very good reason for adding additional states to the list when nationally Obama is only down around 4 points nationally on his 08 performance - the odds of success are just too low, other things being equal, to make it worth the diversion of campaign time and money from the other key battlegrounds, especially when not one of those has yet been locked down for Romney.

        Wisconsin though does look like a worthy exception,  to put alongside Nevada. I expect the campaign to expand there but  - unless Romney holds a national lead after both conventions are concluded  - I reckon that's it, nowhere else. On the offchance Romney does really move the polls in the course of the next few weeks an outside bet would be Pennsylvania, but I suspect memories of the McCain campaign's fruitless last-ditch blitz of PA will make them cautious.

      •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        Romney will have the kind of money to blow that he can afford to spend in states where he's behind by double-digits?

        Whatever you say, Mark...

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:37:36 AM PDT

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        •  Obama Did In 2008. (0+ / 0-)

          Wasn't he advertising in Kentucky and West Virginia in the end to theoretically boost turnout for Lunsford and Rockefeller?

          •  There's overlap in the media markets... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer, jncca

            Parts of West Virginia are in the DC media market; while parts of Ohio are in the Louisville market. Just because ads happened to be playing in Kentucky and West Virginia, doesn't mean that they were the intended targets.

            By the way, I accept the premise that campaigns look out for themselves, but even if I didn't; Rockefeller won his election by close to 30 points, he wasn't being helped by anyone.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:53:41 AM PDT

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    •  whacko MI poll...Baydoun Foster? (0+ / 0-)

      I saw that on Real Clear Politics yesterday.  Don't know anything about them, but they're based in Michigan, and have Romney up by 4 pts in the state.  Is MI really in play?

      If Wisconsin is a tossup, and MI is vulnerable, it's not good news.

      Oregon:'s cold. But it's a damp cold.

      by Keith930 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:15:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes that one (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Keith930, sacman701

        But don't worry. They have an MI sample which has under-30s as under 4%, African Americans at 6%, while over-50s constitute more than 80% of those questioned.

        It's garbage, pure and simple. Or in case you want to try quantifying how garbagey it is, Nate Silver gives them an 11 point Republican house effect - i.e. a 4 point Romney lead in one of their polls is more likely "really" a 7 point Obama lead.

        Hope that's enough to talk you down. MI is not in play.

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