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View Diary: BAM! McCaskill 48, Akin 38 (UPDATE) (211 comments)

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  •  not really (0+ / 0-)

    The replacement will be a pro-lifer as well and while the treatment of Akin might upset some of them it won't be enough to keep them from the polls on election day.

    You are trying to make it out like it is ok either way (drops out or stays in) but this just isn't reality.

    The only chance Dems have of picking up this seat is if Akin stays on the ballot and the only way that happens is if he is convinced he has a shot at winning.

    It is a game of chicken right now.   He knows that if he can stay close and make it past the next deadline the Republican cash will flow back to him as they will do everything they can to take this Senate seat.

    •  More optimistic how this can play out (1+ / 0-)
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      They always say that a campaign should seek to define an opposing candidate (negatively) before he can define himself.

      But in this case, the McCaskill campaign can save its ammunition for later (like, October) attacks.

      Akin has already been defined as the no-abortion-for-rape-victims guy, an extremist who has a crazy idea about how that female stuff works.

      If he drops out, his successor will enter the race defined as, (1) the candidate who took the place of the no-abortion-for-rape-victims crazy guy, (2) the candidate who will now get to explain first of all his/her position on abortions for rape victims, and (3) the candidate who was chosen in a back room vote of party hacks instead of in a primary where Repub voters got to choose for themselves.

      Meanwhile, for weeks or even a month, McCaskill will get to be the normal person in the race.

      Yes, the Repubs have plenty of money to back a new candidate, if they can get one. But the new candidate will start some ways back of where the Repub campaign would want to be.

      •  It is Missouri which is more red than purple (0+ / 0-)

        It will take all of one or two days for another candidate to address this stuff and be in attack mode on McCaskill who is operating from a weak position.

        I wish it were true what you are saying, but I just don't think it is.

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