Skip to main content

View Diary: Nate Silver Calls B.S. on U. of Colorado Election Prediction Model UPDATED x1 (139 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Good point (0+ / 0-)

    I had skimmed over that. Berry clearly misspoke. But I don't think the bad faith/Fox audition interpretation is plausible. (HudsonValleyMark doesn't seem to either.)

    For one thing, Berry is an assistant prof (ie, early in his career) with a PhD dating from 2008, and judging by the photo on his web site, he can't be much older than 30. So unless one thinks he was claiming to have co-authored an election forecasting model when he was still in diapers, it's not really plausible that he intended to claim that the model had predicted the 1980 elections ahead of time.

    I guess one could try to save that interpretation by the notion that Berry was not an original co-author of the model, and his contribution was just to help update the projection for 2012. (That would make his being first author a bit odd.) But Bickers, though older (I'm guessing Berry was his student at CU Boulder), wasn't even in grad school yet in 1980. So it's not very plausible that Berry would have been claiming that either of them developed the model before the 1980 elections.

    The oversimplified/overshot explanation is a lot more plausible.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site