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View Diary: State of Oregon's elections, pre-Labor Day Update (17 comments)

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  •  Pretty good; I'll take it (1+ / 0-)
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    llbear

    I take it you don't think HD 26 or 52 are in play, then.  That's disappointing. I would have thought with Wingard's disgrace and the removal of a lot of rural conservatives from the 26th, we'd have a decent shot at it.  And the 52nd is one of the most swing districts there is, with a one-termer in. Should never let that one go without a fight.

    Oh, and what about Bend's new D+3 district?  We letting the Republicans have that for free too, in the interest of bipartisanship?

    The Romney Campaign: Most expensive mid-life crisis in American history.

    by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 11:08:40 AM PDT

    •  Bend's district is closer to D+4.5 now (1+ / 0-)
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      llbear

      but our candidate isn't impressing me much, though he has a good profile, I doubt he'll be too competitive.  I think I last rated it as Likely R, now I'd probably consider it a "race to watch".  It's moving our way, definitely, and redistricting compacted the district further to make it better, but we just don't have the right candidate for it, I think.  HD-52 is similar, the candidate who won the primary promised not to take any donations above $50 or from outside the district.  That's just not a way to beat an incumbent in a D+1 district.

      HD-26 is a lot like HD-54 in Bend.  Our candidate looks good on paper, and had a huge opportunity when Wingard left the race, but she still hasn't raised enough money to be competitive, despite having all year, while the Republican who was nominated by the county parties has already raised several times what she has, though he's just had a number of weeks and she's had many months.  Given the Republican lean of the district, at R+2, that's not a winning combination.

      Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

      by James Allen on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 11:45:48 AM PDT

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