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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Linda McMahon takes lead over Chris Murphy in new poll (105 comments)

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  •  So would people rate both AZ 1 and AZ 9 (0+ / 0-)

    as Democratic favored?

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 05:25:49 AM PDT

    •  "lean" or "favored," take your pick (0+ / 0-)

      I imagine people will differ between the two.  But it's no worse than "lean" for us, it's not tossup or even tossup/tilt, unless we find our candidate(s) is/are unexpectedly poor.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:49:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  AZ CD1 & CD9: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, SLDemocrat

      CD1:
      Total GOP Vote: 40,402
      Total DEM Vote: 46,869
      Jonathan Paton: 24,576 (60.83%)
      Ann Kirkpatrick: 29,952 (63.91%)

      Paton lives in the Tucson area, with only the very northern suburbs added to CD1 in redistricting, while Kirkpatrick lives in the district's population center of Flagstaff, several hundred miles north. As a former Congresswoman for most of the newly redrawn district, she had far more name recognition. I would rate Kirkpatrick as "favored".

      CD9:
      Total GOP Vote: 38,511
      Total DEM Vote: 29,460
      Vernon Parker: 8,863 (23.01%)
      Kirsten Sinema: 12,329 (41.85%)

      In regards to the much larger total GOP vote, CD9 is our first and only Independent plurality district, with GOP slightly ahead of Dem registration. There are no minor party candidates (no Green, no Libertarian), so I imagine almnost all GOP voters will rally behind Parker and almost all Dem voters will rally behind Sinema. The Indies will truly call the shots in this district. I would rate it "leans" toward Sinema.

      David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

      by Dave in AZ on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:18:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  AZ CD1 & CD9 - Voter registration (0+ / 0-)

        I found the voter registration figures from the Independent Redistricting Commission:

        CD1:
        Dem: 39.6%
        Ind: 30.3%
        Rep: 30.1%

        CD9:
        Ind: 35.1%
        Rep: 33.5%
        Dem: 31.3%

        David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

        by Dave in AZ on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:42:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  yes (0+ / 0-)

      I think AZ1 is lean D, AZ9 tilt D to lean D even though it's a bluer district and Parker probably weaker than Paton. Kirkpatrick kept it close in a much redder version of the district in a red wave year, and I think she's a solid favorite this time around. Sinema's appeal to swing voters is unproven and she will have to defuse some big potential vulnerabilities.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:01:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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