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View Diary: Obama's lead continues to grow on Nate Silver's site (188 comments)

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  •  Every state Bill Clinton won (0+ / 0-)

    Should have been in play. Many weren't due to race. Most notably, WV and AR which should've EASILY gone for the Democrat in 2008-like circumstances.

    •  Yes, the results would have been much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      better in Appalachia. But it's not clear if it would have translated downticket and it's not like you get extra points for being elected President with 56% of the vote vs 53%. 2010 could have gone better for Dems though.

    •  WV and AR (0+ / 0-)

      have been trending away from Democrats long before Obama came to the fray.

      Gore and Kerry were white last time I checked and both did fairly poor in those states relative to Clinton.

      In West Virginia, Democratic opposition to coal mining and especially mountaintop coal mining  by the national party has hurt their appeal

      Why do you think Joe Manchin felt it unnecessary to run a tv ad shooting the cap and trade bill with an actual gun?

      I am literally not joking, he shot the cap and trade bill with a gun for a tv ad.

      •  Gore and Kerry lost nationwide (0+ / 0-)

        And the fundamentals of 2000/2004 did not favor them anywhere near as much as the fundamentals of 2008 favored Obama. Yet Obama still perfrormed worse than Kerry in both.

        •  So I'll use WV in this analysis (0+ / 0-)

          and not AR, since that was Clinton's home-state and may complicate things.

          I will go by the exit polls and ignore Perot, since  the exit polls indicate the Perot effect was a wash, an equal number of his supporters said he would have voted for Dole or Clinton of he was in the race.

          I get all election results from here.

          In 1996,  Clinton got 55-45 nationally (remember the perot rule), and about 57-43 in W.VA , so he did 2 percent better in W. VA. then in the country overall.

          In 2004, Kerry lost by 2.5 percent nationally,  50.5-48, so you would have predicted that he would have been about even in W. Virginia (Clinton did better in W.VA, than the nation overall) , but he lost by a 13 points 56-43 in the state
          Kerry performed way worse in W. Virginia than the fundamentals would have suggested in the national swing .

          National Democrats, both white and black, have been doing poorly in Applachia, and the rural South on a sharp trend since the Clinton days. Coal mining is the biggest issue in West Virginia, and the stance of the national party has hurt them there . A liberal stance on social issues is not something that helps you in this part of the country.

          In an otherwise bullish book on Democrats, known as the Emerging Democratic Majoirty, which says that demographic issues favor Democrats in the long-run, they discuss the 2000 campaign in details . They say that Al Gore's populist campaign was working and that it took a downturn when he came out for gay civil unions and took a stance on gun control.

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