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View Diary: The implications of Nate Silver's analysis (244 comments)

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  •  We're up for the fight of our lives here (9+ / 0-)

    Donnelly is getting most of the fund raising and Mullen is struggling with funds. It also doesn't help that the redistricting really put a weight on getting a dem for IN-2.

    Saving grace is turn out, the focus is going to be getting as many people to the polls as possible even if that means some of us are going to be acting likes Taxis for the day.

    Jackie Walorski lost to Donnelly by only 2 points in 2010 but turnout for Donnelly was remarkably lower than in 2006 for instance.

    So maybe, just maybe with a little Obama wind at our backs and some extra bodies in the polls we can hold the line here.

    We're also looking state as well, got a good shot at getting a dem as gov again what with the crazies around here scaring people.

    Indiana has always been pretty moderate and the tea crazy just hasn't taken a hold like it has in other state despite also swinging heavy red in 2010.

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:38:04 AM PDT

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    •  Indiana (12+ / 0-)

      Too many people see Indiana as solid red. I never have. It is a Midwest state with the same pro-worker and pro-farmer bias as Wisconsin or Iowa...and those ALL should be solid Dem if we were better at messaging. Add to that the kind of green energy strategies that actually help farmers as well as help in energy independence, then Dems really should kick ass in all the Midwest states including Indiana.

      And it is ALWAYS down to voter turnout. Low voter turnout almost always means Repubs win...and among Dems the worst Dems win. High turnout means the better candidates win. Plain and simple. Get out that vote and we will be proud. Fail to get out that vote and we will be embarrassed.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes. I Had A Thought

      by mole333 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:44:08 AM PDT

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      •  Exactly, great break down (6+ / 0-)

        We're rust belt through and through. Hell thanks to the auto bail out the innumerable amount of auto related industries in the northern and north east part of the state have recovered or are on their way to recovering.

        All too often it feels like the national dems write us off for whatever reason.

        Its like they forgot we elected a progressive in the 30's

        --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

        by idbecrazyif on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:52:48 AM PDT

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        •  Time to get it back... (4+ / 0-)

          I have been asked to break up some of my fundraising efforts into smaller categories...Virginia is definitely one I need to focus on. But I think I can make a good diary pushing for Indiana as well. Maybe that will be high on my list for smaller fundraising diaries.

          Donnelly strikes me as conservative by my personal standards, but I was an early supporter. I saw him as exactly what could win (for Congress when he first ran) in his district...and I was right.

          I think I would not like how he votes in the Senate, but still would rather have him than the Repub in the Senate. I know less about the IN-2 House candidate other than it is a race we have a shot at winning if we push hard. But that is good enough for me!

          FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes. I Had A Thought

          by mole333 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:03:40 AM PDT

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          •  Here's a quick run down of IN-2 and Senate (6+ / 0-)

            its Jackie Walorski vs Brendan Mullen.

            Walorski is already well known, especially around here given her election run in 2010. She also already has offices setup and fund raising in order. She has the benefit of that redistricting as well which brought in some more rural and leaning counties as well. She does however have a history in the state house of being pretty partisan and almost absentee at times (she missed some critical votes on her committee assignments)

            Mullen on the other hand is pretty unknown and doesn't have inroad connections like Warlorski has from her time in the state senate. Mullen has the benefit however of being born and raised in South Bend, graduated high school literally 4 blocks from where I write this right now. He also owns and operates a very successful IT firm so he has some heavy business connections in the district.

            So its going to be a drag out fight here for the house.

            The senate though, things are looking up every time Mourdock opens his mouth. And though as a progressive I am with you on assessment of Donnelly, he is a blue dog Dem but he a heavy pro labor dem though. He's a pro business but also pro protectionist, meaning he's willing to see duties and taxes go up to protect local businesses.

            Most importantly is that he can be pulled for the important votes.

            --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

            by idbecrazyif on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:33:18 AM PDT

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        •  Where I live, in Columbus IN (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          idbecrazyif

          Cummins Engine and other auto industry suppliers have pushed down unemployment to 6.0%. Most of our rust-belt industry is way up north in The Region, around Gary, just east of Chicago, where unemployment is 9.1%. The bluest part of the state, followed by Bloomington, home of Indiana University.

          Hey, Mitt! Thanks for ObamneyCare. http://www.healthcare.gov

          by Mokurai on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 09:36:32 AM PDT

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      •  HUH??? (0+ / 0-)

        You need to take a look at the 1996 election results; note: the Clinton/Gore-win states are shown in RED:

        http://uselectionatlas.org/...

        see something "funny' with this map?

        there sits Indiana...the ONLY state in the midwest to vote for the hapless bob dole.

        that tell you anything?

        Indiana is not a swing state... trust me, I grew up there.

        "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

        by Superpole on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 02:51:11 PM PDT

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    •  Is there a link where we can contribute? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      idbecrazyif, Mokurai, Imhotepsings

      In fact, I wish you'd transform your comments into a diary and post it after the convention. My donation would be small, but a well-timed diary probably would attract others.

      There's little hope for my own state (Arkansas), but I'd sure like to help in the land of my abolitionist ancestors!

      "Let each unique song be sung and the spell of differentiation be broken" - Winter Rabbit

      by cotterperson on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:47:16 AM PDT

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