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View Diary: The Texas Trend - Red Not Blue? (39 comments)

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  •  Ok I haven't processed your whole argument either (0+ / 0-)


    The only way that TX could conceivably trend GOP on the basis of white voters (or even not trend D) would be if the GOP made gains among urban/suburban whites in Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. I can't imagine that you would want to argue that that is going to happen to any meaningful extent.
    Actually, I think that could happen to a meaningful extent, especially depending on how broadly you define "urban/suburban".  Obama gained 4.6 points on John Kerry, and in Texas, they lost the Bush home state effect as well.  So he really "should" gain more than 5 points throughout TX, all else being equal.

    Let's look at Obama-Kerry by current CD.  Obama gained 5 points or less on Kerry in Texas districts 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25.  At least several of these are arguably in the area you describe, even leaving out safe D districts that might not have much room to swing, such as TX-02, TX-05, TX-07, TX-12, TX-14, and TX-22.

    But it will certainly be interesting to see what happens this fall.  I'm open to the idea that Texas will trend D somewhat, but I'm frankly amazed how many people say it with such certainty without, as far as I know, any electoral evidence at all.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 12:25:13 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Just consider what it would mean (0+ / 0-)

      for republican vote share to increase among whites based on urban/suburban voters. That would mean new urban/suburban white voters giving more than 75% of their vote to republicans. And that's including Austin, too. What are the chances of that happening?

    •  Vote by CD (1+ / 0-)
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      Vote by CD is really not a good way to look at it. Most of the GOP districts mix urban/suburban areas (with large population growth where Obama made gains) and rural areas (with little population growth where Obama did not make gains). You have to look at those different components of the districts separately, and in many cases population growth in the suburban areas is large enough that you have to take that account even for just the change in a 4 year period! (from 2004 to 2008).

      In most districts in TX there are multiple different trends in different parts of the district going in different directions. Because the districts are gerrymandered to combine areas with very different sorts of politics, you have to separate the sub-regions of each district in order to meaningfully analyze the Kerry-Obama trends. For example, TX-22 contains large parts of Fort Bend County where Obama made gains due to minority population growth, but he didn't make the same sorts of gains in TX-22's part of Galveston County because population growth there has been primarily white (and the impact of the Hurricane). As another example, even though Obama made large gains in Denton County over Kerry, he made a lower than average gain over Kerry in TX-26. The reason for this is that TX-26 included a very heavily Democratic part of Fort Worth which has had little population growth. Since Denton County had a LOT of population growth, its vote share in TX-26 went up from 2004 to 2008. So even though Denton County swung heavily to Obama, and even though the Fort Worth section of the district was heavily Democratic, the fact that Denton County's vote share increased meant that the district as a whole did not swing by much to Obama.

      So it is better to look at results by county or better yet by precinct, being mindful of the specific demographic change/population growth, which is different in different areas.

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