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View Diary: How Romney's advertising shows the shape of the race (110 comments)

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  •  I think they overestimate Ryan's WI impact (22+ / 0-)

    remember, he has never run statewide

    a VP candidate does not guarantee you will carry his home state

    and while lots of dark money is going to go into all these states, remember that Citizens United unleashed the unions, and they will be very active in WI - as well as in OH and a few other states.

    Ryan also has to watch his backside as Rob Zervan is running a very aggressive Congressional race against him.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:26:44 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  My main point was (7+ / 0-)

      that it's hard to read much into the fact that the Romney campaign didn't buy airtime in Wisconsin.

      With respect to Ryan, it's true that he's not won statewide.  It's also true that the GOP in Wisconsin is quite well organized and the state has been voting more conservative in recent elections. I lived in WI for years follow WI politics pretty close - Obama can win there, and probably will.  But the state is just not the same as in 2008. Our side, including he unions, organized hard for the recall election and in opposition to Scott Walker.  That organization helps us. Their side also mobilized quite successfully, and in the last cycle as well as during the recall election, the state was flooded by dark money.  Ryan and Walker have been close associates - they act alike, talk alike, even look alike. Walker and his political operation will pull out all the stops in Wisconsin and really pimp Ryan in this election, far more than would be normal for a VP candidate.

      Now I'm not trying to dampen enthusiasm.  We can and probably will win Wisconsin.  But the Romney campaign will absolutely not give up in Wisconsin, and the role of Ryan/Walker and dark campaign funders like the Kochs makes Wisconsin a bit unique.  It's not easy to apply generalities regarding how VP candidates play out in this very specific race.

      “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

      by ivorybill on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:00:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  How aweseome would it be to kick Lyin's ass out (9+ / 0-)

      of congress. It's acheivable. He's been pulling the wool over his constituents eyes for a long time. I'm sure Zervan is happy to point that out.

      Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

      by JTinDC on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:17:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's true (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, lonespark, Kinak, elwior

      2004 - John Edwards. Did not win NC for Kerry.
      1996 - Jack Kemp. Did not win NY for Dole.
      1988 - Lloyd Bentsen. Did not win TX for Dukakis.
      1984 - Geraldine Ferraro. Did not win NY for Mondale.
      1972 - Sargent Shriver. Did not win MD for McGovern.
      1964 - William Miller. Did not win NY for Goldwater.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:05:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  VP not winning states (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cederico, elwior

        I'd add a few to that list:

        2008   Biden.   Obama would have won Delaware without him.
        2008.  Palin.   McCain would have won Alaska without her.
        2000 and 2004 Cheney.   Bush would have won Wyoming/Texas without him.
        2000   Liberman.   Gore would have won CT anyway.

        I don't think Gore made a difference in TN for Clinton, or Quayle in IN for Bush I, or Stockdale in wherever he was from for Perot, etc.
        etc.

        Not disputing what you listed at all, just having a hard time finding any cases in recent history where the VP made a difference in his/her home state result for the ticket.

        •  Gore possibly made a difference in (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ManhattanMan

          Clinton's '96 race.  TN was won by only 2 points back then.

          "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

          by TLS66 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:15:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gore in 96 (0+ / 0-)

            Possibly.   Not sure that Gore made the difference there (after all, Gore didn't win TN for the 2000 ticket) but I guess I agree that it's plausible that he did in 96.   But that's a pretty weak evidence to suggest Ryan is going to hand WI to Romney.

            Let's face it, that's not why Romney picked Ryan anyway.   The Wall Street Journal told him to.  That's why.

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