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View Diary: How Romney's advertising shows the shape of the race (110 comments)

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  •  This line scares the HELL out of me... (0+ / 0-)
    If Romney were to carry all 8, he would have 291 electoral votes to Obama's 247.
    Hence their decision to "carpet bomb" those states with advertising.

    I know chances are VERY slim he'll carry all 8, but it IS path to winning.

    "Well, the problem here is that you're out of candy. You're gonna need more candy." Rachel Maddow on the Big Bailout

    by cishart on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:34:23 AM PDT

    •  except several of those states are highly unlikely (0+ / 0-)

      if you take Nate Silver seriously

      what he shows as chances of Obama winning

      first one reason Romney might not be advertising in Wisconsin is that Obama's chances of winning are 81.0 %

      now for the eight "competitive" states
      NH  82.6
      NV  82.4
      VA 72.6
      OH 71.9
      CO 71.8
      IA  71.8
      FL 63.1

      NC is 59.9 for Romney, and if he loses that, he will already have lost VA

      Take out the 10 EVs from NH and Nevada and Romney has a universe of 90 in the remaining  targeted states in order to gain the 78 he needs for a 269-269 tie or the 79 for an outright win.

      Is it possible?  Yes, even in Nate's analysis, which is based only on public polls.

      I do think it is telling that the Obama campaign leaked their internal OH poll of a 9 point lead, and there was no push back from the Republicans.

      I also do not think Nate has taken into effect in his analysis the fact that Virgil Goode is now on the ballot in VA, although AG Ken Cuccinelli will try to knock him off.  I think that is worth 2% to Obama, but even if it is only 1% it probably bumps the probability of Obama carrying the Old Dominion by at least another 4-5%.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:54:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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