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View Diary: How Romney's advertising shows the shape of the race (110 comments)

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  •  except several of those states are highly unlikely (0+ / 0-)

    if you take Nate Silver seriously

    what he shows as chances of Obama winning

    first one reason Romney might not be advertising in Wisconsin is that Obama's chances of winning are 81.0 %

    now for the eight "competitive" states
    NH  82.6
    NV  82.4
    VA 72.6
    OH 71.9
    CO 71.8
    IA  71.8
    FL 63.1

    NC is 59.9 for Romney, and if he loses that, he will already have lost VA

    Take out the 10 EVs from NH and Nevada and Romney has a universe of 90 in the remaining  targeted states in order to gain the 78 he needs for a 269-269 tie or the 79 for an outright win.

    Is it possible?  Yes, even in Nate's analysis, which is based only on public polls.

    I do think it is telling that the Obama campaign leaked their internal OH poll of a 9 point lead, and there was no push back from the Republicans.

    I also do not think Nate has taken into effect in his analysis the fact that Virgil Goode is now on the ballot in VA, although AG Ken Cuccinelli will try to knock him off.  I think that is worth 2% to Obama, but even if it is only 1% it probably bumps the probability of Obama carrying the Old Dominion by at least another 4-5%.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:54:17 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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