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View Diary: Gallup Signals Sizable Obama Bounce (42 comments)

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  •  I get it but elaborating on this in a diary would (1+ / 0-)
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    be really helpful for a lot of people.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't this mean that the average of the 7 day poll went up 2 ? And 1 day dropped off and we added a new day with a new number. Therefore, +14 happened when we added the new day with the new number compared to the old day with the old number.

    •  yes and no... (0+ / 0-)

      +2 in a single day could come cause the drop off of the last day 7 days ago helped to.. it could also be because the number was rising form the previous days inclusions.. just not enough to get it up from +1 to +2..

      here's a couple of daily streams..

        -4  -2  0  +2  +4 +4  +5

      if you weight them all the same ( and some polls will assign more weight to the most recent data).. you would get +9 which divided by 7 days could be a +1 tracking poll result.

      if the next day comes in at +5..then you would have:

      -2 0 +2 +4 +4 +5 +5..

      that is plus 18 which might be +3 in the tracking poll result..

      so in this case there was no increase in the last days data (+5 to +5) although the net was +9 since a -4  left and was replaced by a +5.

      Still you basic point is right... not if this just stays flat now for a couple days the final result in a week would be +5.

      hard to make generalizations about statistics.. but when the evens are occurring in the very recent days.. like last night..
      and a tracking poll jumps 2 points.. it is on its way to higher numbers...

      thanks for your note  it was flattering.

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