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View Diary: Reality wins: "Climate change is not a hoax" (41 comments)

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  •  As far as the arctic ice goes (4+ / 0-)

    I think we're way beyond the tipping point, honestly. I think that if we stopped adding CO2 to the air tomorrow, we'd probably see a while of no sea ice up there in the summer. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen at this point within the next few years, I wouldn't even be too surprised at this point to see it essentially happen -- at least turn the whole thing to slush -- next year (though I think that would likely take several more unexpected events -- note that the now open water is most likely helping to form the arctic cyclones that are speeding up the rest of the melt, it's a positive feedback we didn't really see coming so well.)

    It's much faster than anybody predicted. The "gloomy" prediction for no sea ice in summer was 2050. I think we're fairly likely to see it be 2015 or so now.

    The rush to drill is already starting. No joke. Shell is on it, they sent a ship up last month to get started on exploratory wells in the Beaufort. China, India, and Russia are all lining up. It's already starting.

    I think that the first year that we have basically no arctic ice cap in the summer is going to very quickly and suddenly become a year of really haywire weather patterns.

    My hope is that it's the kind of thing that really gets people moving.

    But I think the ice itself is pretty much a lost cause at this point. We can't do enough at this point. Where we find ourselves now has been decades in the making -- that thick, multiyear ice ain't never coming back, and what's left is very fragile.

    •  Yep. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, RLMiller, Spit
      The "gloomy" prediction for no sea ice in summer was 2050. I think we're fairly likely to see it be 2015 or so now.
      In 2011, Wieslaw Maslowski at US Navy PG School predicted an ice-free Arctic in summer by 2016, plus or minus three years.  IOW, no later than 2019, and possibly as soon as next year.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/... .  I'm begining to think that we will have an iceless or mostly iceless Arctic in winter by 2050.

      Renewable energy brings national global security.     

      by Calamity Jean on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:27:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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