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View Diary: LOL ... now they're going after Nate Silver (158 comments)

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  •  Nate being wrong... (1+ / 0-)
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    Smoh
    Thus the Republicans, arguably, are in something of a death spiral. The more conservative, partisan, and strident their message becomes, the more they alienate non-base Republicans.
    It seems he was on-target, just premature, and perhaps over-stating how far-reaching this effect would be. Many conservative districts have not yet awoken to how awful and misguided the GOP is, or how giving them a majority has basically resulted in gridlock and chaos.

    But I think he's right, the party's in a death spiral, the demographics are such they can't remain the party of only rich, white, heterosexual, Christian men (and their enablers) forever and maintain relevance. We just might not see electoral effects until 2016. Or maybe 2012... we'll see.

    You're not being "oppressed" when another group gains rights you've always enjoyed.

    by Scott Wooledge on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:15:44 AM PDT

    •  How bad we're his predictions in 2010? (0+ / 0-)

      Cats are better than therapy, and I'm a therapist.

      by Smoh on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:16:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't really know. (0+ / 0-)

        I imagine with 535 races, it's much harder to keep track of the big picture.

        Particularly as House and Senate races are polled far less frequently and by far fewer pollsters than a Presidential race (meaning, less data for him to crunch, and less variety of sources).

        If you really only have one public pollster tracking a House race in a particular state (which is common), it doesn't do much good for Nate to recrunch their numbers. Nate's accuracy comes from aggregating a variety of pollsters and using the aggregate to correct or compensate for their shortcomings in their methodology.

        You're not being "oppressed" when another group gains rights you've always enjoyed.

        by Scott Wooledge on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 10:37:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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