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View Diary: New poll shows Massachusetts Senate race in dead heat (149 comments)

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  •  Massachusetts is most certainly not reddening. (7+ / 0-)

    Warren hasn't been running the best campaign ever, although she's been getting better lately. That's really the main reason for Brown's lead.

    "Let's put the jam on the lower shelf so the little people can reach it." - Ralph Yarborough

    by Zutroy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 01:06:43 PM PDT

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    •  if this was California, it wouldn't be close (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mogolori

      Mass seems to be redder than it looks if the GOP is still taken seriously at a statewide level.

      •  Despite the blueness of the state (4+ / 0-)

        MA has a history of electing center-right republicans.

        •  For Governor. They cannot accomplish anything (0+ / 0-)

          without the state Congress approving. MA congress can override any veto.

          My personal computer is limited, can't post without tagging on. Community computer better. Pardon tagging to comments, spelling, please.

          by CuriousBoston on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:07:15 PM PDT

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      •  Massachusetts is much bluer than California, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CuriousBoston, Thestral

        seriously. Democrats have been unchallenged in the General Court since back when JFK was a Senator, and their supermajority in the House plummeted all the way down to 80 percent after the Republican wave of 2010. Democrats have never had such traction in California.

        Massachusetts electing Republican governors in recent years is no more indicative of any trend than Wyoming or Utah electing Democratic governors (Dave Freudenthal and Jim Matheson). It's well documented that gubernatorial races buck statewide trends, as people pay less attention to ideology in such cases. In addition, Scott Brown winning statewide office isn't indicative of any statewide trend because the race was a special election with incredibly low turnout.

        I'm telling you, and some Kossacks seem to have trouble believing this, but Warren hasn't been running the best campaign up to now. That's the reason for the state of the race now.

        "Let's put the jam on the lower shelf so the little people can reach it." - Ralph Yarborough

        by Zutroy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 03:37:13 PM PDT

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        •  Disagree (0+ / 0-)

          California has lived under the shadow of Prop 13, which gives the inland GOP minority veto power, for 30 years. This gives some folks the illusion that CA is more conservative than it actually is. But the population hasn't taken a republican seriously in a senate race in many years. in addition, CA has a pretty great record of electing strong women to the senate. Boxer wasn't a great campaigner, but she wiped the floor with...well, I can't even remember who she wiped the floor with.  In the last 10 years in particular, CA has shifted even more to the left.

          Warren may or may not be running a great campaign, but she is not under a cloud of serious scandal or imploding under the lights. MA's liberal reputation doesn't seem to me to be deserved in the light of Brown's continued competitiveness, regardless of how slick the guy is.

          •  Mass doesn't have a history of (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CuriousBoston, VirginiaBlue, Thestral

            Electing women to statewide office higher than atty general or treasurer. I don't count Romney's lt gov, who was elected on his ticket. There has never been a woman elected governor or senator here, and there's a grand total of one member of Congress, Paul Tsongas's widow. If you look at the polls, Warren is doing just fine with women voters. There's a significant gender gap.

            Another issue is that because it's such a one-party state on the state level, governors excepted, well, things happen. Power is abused. I think the last 3 speakers of the House have been indicted. Starting with Gov. Weld, Mass. voters have been particularly susceptible to the idea of moderate, bipartisan Republicans. The key here is to convince centrist voters that Brown is not a Weld Republican, he's a Romney Republican. And to hammer home the point that if you support Obama, you need to give him a non-obstructionist Congress.

            Basically, though, there are a lot of undecideds in this race who are just starting to pay attention. It will be very very important to see how they break in the next month.

        •  Yes, I agree with you. Well stated. eom. (0+ / 0-)

          My personal computer is limited, can't post without tagging on. Community computer better. Pardon tagging to comments, spelling, please.

          by CuriousBoston on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:08:11 PM PDT

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