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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: With race tightening, DSCC makes an ad buy in Connecticut (188 comments)

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  •  Other than IN I think he is repub leaning (0+ / 0-)

    NM should be likely D, CT still lean D, and AZ could be a tossup although lean R is not unreasonable.

    Great to see IN as a tossup.

    •  Arizona is not a tossup (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, sawolf, SLDemocrat

      Lean R is right.  Hell, I had it likely R myself until the last PPP poll, which I kinda accept because the 9-point Obama deficit looked exactly right to me.  But I still think Carmona is down.

      I won't buy tossup until Carmona is polling above 45 and still within MoE.

      Indiana is closer to a tossup to me, and it's eye-opening Charlie calls it that now.  He's not that aggressive in going against a state's partisan lean, especially when the lean works to make the President unpopular in the state.

      I would still call Indiaan tossup/tilt R based on Donnelly not breaking out above 45, same rule as I apply to Carmona.  Show me you're tied when undecideds are down to single-digits, and I think you're really in it to the end.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:54:01 AM PDT

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      •  You are morphing into Jacoby Jonze & Mark27! (0+ / 0-)

        Things are better than you think in MO & AZ, remember you were too pessimistic in the AZ house special and I tried to steer you right? Trust me!

      •  Doesn't he see private polling from campaigns? (0+ / 0-)

        Given the dearth of public polling from Indiana this cycle, I would assume so. Why else would he be so willing to make a change?

        I really wish PPP would poll Indiana. I know why it won't, but still. And if not them, then someone else reputable.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:06:12 AM PDT

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