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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: With race tightening, DSCC makes an ad buy in Connecticut (188 comments)

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  •  I agree with that. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:22:12 AM PDT

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    •  and you were so astute with you other observation! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17

      you are very wrong to say this.

      •  Holding The Senate in 2014.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lina, OGGoldy

        .....requires the Dems to hold seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, North Carolina, and West Virginia, several of which are likely to see incumbents Democrats retiring.  You're aware of this right?

        •  Here's something I compiled on 2014. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27

          It's so tough.  Worse than I had thought from memory.

          16 of 20 Republican Targets < D+5:

          AK (R+13), LA (R+10), AR (R+9), SD (R+9), WV (R+8), MT (R+7), NC (R+4), VA (R+2), CO (R+0), IA (D+1), MN (D+2), NH (D+2), NM (D+2), MI (D+4), NJ (D+4), OR (D+4)

          1 of 13 Democratic Targets < R+5:

          ME (D+5)

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:46:48 AM PDT

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          •  Forgot About Montana..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            spiderdem

            Harry Reid better enjoy his gavel.

            •  How about instead of complaining (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              EcosseNJ, bumiputera, lina, askew

              about how damn difficult it is, we:

              1. tell our incumbents that have no later than September 2013 to decide whether they are running?

              2. tell our incumbents that if they are running, they must make at least two trips per month to the red areas of their states until the Republican primaries are over, at which point it turns into three or four trips?

              3. work on finding candidates for relatively promising races (the key word being relative) in Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas?

              4. tell the state party chairs in the rest of the states that if they allow a debacle like we just saw in Tennessee (where a conservative activist ended up as the Democratic nominee), they will be stripped of their jobs?

              5. tell them that they until July of 2013 to have at least five potential candidates for their states, no matter how marginal (i.e. the city councilman of Skitback, Alabama), ready?

              6. tell these same start party chairs that if they will receive at least a dollar for dollar match for money raised to build up the infrastructure of our parties in these states?

              7. tell the eventual candidates that they will received at least  $2 for every $1 they raise, up until August/September of 2014?

              8. make sure that all of our guys running have access to a competent, seasoned campaign staff, partially if not entirely financed by the national party?

              In other words, why don't we shut the fuck up about how hard is going to be and work on being aggressively on offense rather than on defense? We'll still lose most if not all of these races, but hey, maybe we end up winning one. More importantly, though, we'll be building the party for the future.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:34:28 AM PDT

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              •  I don't think they'll listen to me. (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Mark27, bumiputera, DCCyclone, OGGoldy

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:37:15 AM PDT

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                •  Maybe if you and I team up... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lina

                  How are you at tap dancing? I mean, who doesn't like tap dancing?

                  Seriously now, do you like my list of suggestions? I'm not sure how some of our incumbents would react, but I think matching fund raising like that would be helpful to getting some of these people on their feet. It could also help to pull relatively good candidates into races. And if it works even better than I imagine it might, I don't think it'll be that draining on the DNC/DSCC's finances, given how small some of these states are.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:44:52 AM PDT

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                  •  Some good ideas in there. (0+ / 0-)

                    I suspect the Dem establishment already does a lot of this carrot and stick stuff.  Perhaps not enough.

                    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                    by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:51:34 AM PDT

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                    •  I'm guessing it doesn't. (0+ / 0-)

                      Not to sound like I have my head too far up my own ass, but what I suggested above seems very basic and simple to implement. Yet, we still end up with disasters like the Senate race in Tennessee. Also, it's not as if this would be privileged, right? Eventually, even if it was only through disclosure reports, we'd see something in the numbers, or so I would think.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:57:38 AM PDT

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          •  It's probably far less pessimistic then you make (0+ / 0-)

            out.
            ============
            16 of 20 Republican Targets < D+5:

            AK (R+13), LA (R+10), AR (R+9), SD (R+9), WV (R+8), MT (R+7), NC (R+4), VA (R+2), CO (R+0)

            1 of 13 Democratic Targets < R+5:

            ME (D+5)
            ==============
            WV could be okay IF Rockefeller stays
            NC trending blue statewide voting
            Colorado presently R=0 and trending blue
            Arizona, will McCain retire?
            Montana competitive in statewide elections, ditto NC
            Alaska-Democrat has incombancy.
            Virginia trending blue.

            And it would be a two-year GOP senate edge anyway, swept away in 2016, with little legislation done 2015-2016. Supreme Court appointments would be a pain if GOP controlled senate, though.

            "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

            by TofG on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:19:48 AM PDT

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            •  Not Arizona....Arkansas...As In Mark Pryor..... (0+ / 0-)

              ....and while North Carolina may be trending blue, it's a tall order to expect that a midterm electorate in NC will resemble the blue-trending Presidential election electorate.

            •  They will just need 2-4 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lina

              even if Dems escape 2012 unscathed.  I think we might have a better shot in WV if Rockefeller did retire, although I think we lose it either way.  A recent poll that looked very good for Dems overall had Rockefeller trailing Capito by 4 in 2014.  He is far to the left of the state at this point, and Capito is the Republican's best hope and is waiting for that race.

              Even in a neutral environment, I would expect us to lose AK, LA, SD (w/o Johnson), WV, and MT.  NC I would expect to be very competitive as well.  I think we'll probably win the others, but could lose many more in a wave.  I do not expect us to gain any in a neutral environment.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:31:58 AM PDT

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              •  We have a chance to gain seats this year (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                abgin

                so I think talk of losing in 2014 is pointless this early, especially since the repub brand could very well continue to erode between now and then.

                •  No amount of speculation (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera, supercereal

                  is ever too much for me.  I have already begun speculating about 2016.  I like that speculation a lot better than 2014.

                  White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                  by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:46:14 AM PDT

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                  •  As the wise woman (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    spiderdem

                    Peggy Noonan once said, "Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to."

                    I can't remember where I saw someone tell me that they had a class with Peggy Noonan and she acted like a complete loon, as if she were drunk, the entire time. Maybe it was here, but I am not sure.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:50:11 AM PDT

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