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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: With race tightening, DSCC makes an ad buy in Connecticut (188 comments)

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  •  I'd be more alarmed if they weren't (0+ / 0-)

    doing something.

    Races get close. McMahon has spent a lot of money, $15 million, and that's just for this cycle. In total, she's spent about $65 million so far, adding together what she spent last cycle. She's also running a more positive/less abrasive campaign than last time. And while Murphy is a better fit for the state, she's not running as Jim DeMint in Connecticut. All of those things, plus the fact that Murphy isn't an incumbent and isn't even that well known statewide, make me unsurprised it is close.

    But she's not polling 15 points ahead. She's been ahead in exactly two polls, one of which was from Rasmussen, in the last six months, if not longer.

    The other thing to consider is that the electorate will be far friendlier to Democrats than it was in 2010, when Malloy and even Blumenthal lost Independents but managed to win. Malloy lost them by about 20 points, yet he still won.

    As I said yesterday, if the electorate is at least Democratic as it was in 2010 (think about that for a moment) and Murphy gets 45 percent of Independents, he will win easily. He can lose more Democrats than he would gain Republicans and still win pretty easily.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:14:58 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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