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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Two new independent House polls in New York look good for Dems (73 comments)

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  •  I don't think you can count retirements (0+ / 0-)

    If someone retires then i don't think it's counted as being pro/anti incumbent since there is no incumbent.  

    Kind of splitting hairs though, we all know that incumbents win congressional elections waaaayyy more than challengers.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 08:05:42 AM PDT

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    •  The main reason for 90% re-election (0+ / 0-)

      in the House is not incumbency.  It is because only 10% of the districts in the House have PVIs between D+3 and R+3, maybe even less.  

      •  The 2 can't be separated (0+ / 0-)

        Besides, having extremely partisan districts doesn't diminsh the idea that primaries still happen.  If 2 people run in a congressional party from the same (incumbent) party, who is more likely to win?  And beyond that, why don't most incumbents see strong primary challenges?  It's probably the power of incumbency as a leading factor.

        The point is, incumbents win more than challengers.  There's no such thing as an anti-incumbent congressional election.  

        Can you imagine 200+ new congressmen/women or 17 new senators in a given cycle?

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 08:51:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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