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View Diary: CNN calls a five-point lead for Barack Obama in swing states a 'tie' (157 comments)

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  •  total face palm.. this is beyond ignorant.. (2+ / 0-)
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    IM, RichM

    a 5 point lead is "within the margin of error of 3.1"????

    Holy smoke where to begin..

    simply.. the  margin of error is based on a number of standard deviations from the norm when obtained data is normalized into a bell shape of probabilities..

    being within a certain number of standard deviations from the average creates certain levels of confidence that a poll is accurately portraying reality.

    an margin of eorror of 3.1 .. is + or - 3.1 from tne average which is in this case Obama +5. ..

    So.. what is being said in this poll is the odds at around 90% that Obama's lead is within the range of 8.1 - 1.9

    the odds that this is a tied race ar out of that range and therefore less than 10%

    therefore it is over 90% likely CNN's comment that this is a tied race based that poll is wrong.

    Obama has a statistically significant lead.. PERIOD.

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