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View Diary: The 39% Polling Floor (114 comments)

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  •  Well, the ~20% floor (10+ / 0-)

    is there for virtually any opinion poll question short of "Do you approve of hiring serial murdering pedophiles as elementary school teachers?" That's a different issue: there is almost literally no opinion so stupid that you can't get about 20% of the population to say they agree with it, and there's almost no opinion so clearly brilliant that you can't get about 20% to say they disagree with it.

    Candidate preference polls, being a different formulation (they're not "yes/no" or "agree/disagree" or Likert-scale), have a different dynamic going on. We can see this in the fact that certain subpopulations (notably African-Americans) break not only the 40% but even the 20% barrier on some candidate preference questions, while the 20% barrier seems to hold up pretty solidly on opinion questions even in crosstabs.

    "Let’s just move on, treat everybody with firmness, fairness, dignity, compassion and respect. Let’s be Marines." - Sgt. Maj Michael Barrett on DADT repeal

    by kyril on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 06:49:41 AM PDT

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    •  IIRC.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ....there was a study years ago that showed that a small but still significant proportion of TV viewers (I believe it was one in seven or something like that) got things precisely backward when trying to recall TV news. Somehow, they flipped the story in their brains so that black was white and up was down.

      And if you've ever worked much with Likert scale evaluations... I remember several times with student evaluations when some student wanted to trash me but went down the wrong side of the scale and gave me a perfect mark.

      "They smash your face in, and say you were always ugly." (Solzhenitsyn)

      by sagesource on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 12:55:04 PM PDT

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